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Today's Show:
Today we're giving ourselves a progress report, a midterm of sorts, on the 2009 predictions we made back in January.

Predictions for 2009, Mid-Year Results

Ara's Predictions

Netbooks will become popular as portable A/V devices - Ara has been playing around with his HP Mini laptop (apparently Netbook is a registered brand name) and feels that this niche may have legs. At about $500 you can buy a device that will play your music, videos, and access the web. Running the Slingplayer on the device is simple and fun. The devices are lightweight and and go just about anywhere. A full review will come in early 2009.

Mid-Year Status:
Netbooks have definitely become popular. In fact sales reports say they are cutting into notebook sales. There is even a rumor that Apple will introduce a Netbook (not the Media Pad) in October. With that said there are also reports that are saying the the Netbook fad is waning. I'll rate this as too early to tell. Things will change when Apple gets into the game. Then there is the Apple Media Pad. Does that count as a Netbook or is that a new class of device?

Movie Download services will Blossom - With the economy slowing down and movie ticket prices going up consumers will turn to movie download services like AppleTV and Vudu. Why spend $40 plus refreshments to go see movies with the family. The download services are cheaper and more convenient.

Mid-Year Status:
Apple has led the charge in this area. Netflix with its watch it now is on almost every platform and Amazon is making strides as well. But outside the techie world I still think we have a bit to go. I'd say we are seeing the area bud but not quite blossom. We'll see what other platforms Netflix can get on by years end. If Netflix has newer release movies and more of them by year's end I'd say we have seen the blossoms.

Corollary Prediction to Above - Studios realizing that consumers are staying home and downloading will shorten the release window movies.

Mid-Year Status:
So far I have not seen any movement on this front. Still hoping though!

Blu Ray Movie Prices will be on par with their DVD counterparts - The studios will want to push Blu Ray player sales so they can get you to update your current library with Blu Ray discs. The strategy will fail but we'll take $18 Blu Ray movies.

Mid-Year Status:
Prices have come down and you can routinely find Blu Ray discs for $16 at the HT Guys Store. Titles like: Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, Twister and Fantastic Four just to name a few. But for the most part Blu Ray Discs are still too high, most of the newer titles go for more than $25.

Digital Transition will go smoothly - You can't turn on a TV without February 17th showing up someplace on your screen. At this point I feel the government has done a great job of warning consumers. The real ad campaign is yet to come. There will be some who aren't prepared but like the Y2K issue of 9 years ago. The transition will come and go without a hitch.

Mid-Year Status:
Got this one right except for the date. The transition was postponed until June, but by almost all accounts it was a non-event.

DirecTV and/or Dish Network will start transmitting Dolby Digital Plus Audio Tracks on some channels - OK, I'll admit it. This is me just wishing for it. But why not?

Mid-Year Status:
Still waiting on this one.

Braden's Predictions

New release downloads will go "all you can eat" - Someone will come up with a monthly subscription pricing plan that both makes sense for consumers and is profitable for themselves and the studios. There are a ton of potential options here: Netflix, Vudu, Apple, Sony, Microsoft - even Cable companies. It doesn't really matter who does it as long as the pricing is affordable (not much more than an existing Netflix subscription) and there's a wide selection of new release movies.

Mid-Year Status:
Still waiting, but the longer I wait the more this feels like wishful thinking instead of an actual prediction. I'd say the odds of this happening by the end of the year are pretty slim at this point.

Portable Blu-ray players will hit the shelves - We'll finally see small Blu-ray players for road trips and airline flights. They'll also start to make their way into automobile entertainment systems. This will help make Blu-ray discs as easily portable as existing DVDs.

Mid-Year Status:
Panasonic is selling the DMP-B15 portable Blu-ray player. It's on store shelves right now. Sure it costs $671 right now, but it's available. Panasonic is also showing an in-car Blu-ray system, the CY-BB1000D. Supposedly it will be available in the fall. Not a flood of options, but they're coming. Nailed it!

A true iPhone alternative will emerge - Let's face it, right now the iPhone is the only smart phone out there. And I am by no means an iFanBoy - I don't even own one. Something will come out in 2009 that will present a true alternative for those looking for a sleek, sexy, do it all phone that isn't an iPhone. It may be Google, could be Microsoft, or even Samsung or Nokia. But they aren't going to let another year go by without any real competition.

Mid-Year Status:
By many accounts, the Palm Pre is everything the iPhone should have been at launch. We can't say for sure whether it will really put much of a dent in the iPhone's market share, but it looks promising. There's still a ton more apps available for the iPhone, so the gap is pretty large. We'll have to wait and see on this one. But now that the iPhone has cut and paste, it may be unstoppable ;-)

Blu-ray prices will fall to be the same as DVD - Ara and I agree on this one. The Blu-ray group will realize that nobody wants to pay a premium for Blu-ray when they're perfectly happy with DVD. To get them to switch, they'll make Blu-ray available for the same price.

Mid-Year Status:
We're certainly getting closer. I'd say that DVD players, on average, are still less expensive than Blu-ray players, but Blu-ray has dipped below $100 a couple times, and it isn't even Black Friday yet. Sales should be nuts this Holiday season.

Something really exciting will happen in TV technology - That's a bold prediction, huh? I'm thinking either LED based LCD will hit shelves at attainable prices, ultra contrast plasma will finally arrive, or OLED will begin shipping in sizes greater than 40 inches. How's that for being bold?

Mid-Year Status:
Nothing yet. Fingers crossed though...we still have a few months for something big to happen.