One quickly learns in the consumer electronics business that customer confusion produces "no" in the buying publics' minds. Any confusion over standards or product benefits leave consumers deferring. There are those who must have the latest irrespective of cost of standards. This group is essential to get one started but it cannot build a major CE business. The average customer must be the target...and for that to happen the product has to perform flawlessly out of the box sans confusion about operating. Even a stable standard, as with VHS and DVD, takes numerous exposures from television and print editorial and paid advertising to establish a price/value before a buying decision is made. Is HDTV an impulse item? It is too expensive for that. The average consumer will learn a great deal about it before plunking down hard-earned yen, dollars, Deutsche marks, or French francs. The consumers will have to be clear in their minds that the standard is going to be supported and that it will last for the life of the product they are investing in. The Macintosh computer did not reach the high market levels because there was a persistent fear that the system would not be supported by software and service vendors. All this is said in a way to suggest the sublime importance of standards stability in building a major consumer base of loyal customers. In the process of creating a new product category a single doubt introduced in the marketplace about the standard and a large segment of the public will defer buying indefinitely and vanish from your market forecasts. They will wait until everything is proven to them beyond a shadow-of-a-doubt. Color experienced a painful course in the U.S. in its early days. Large screen television is another that started off with a bad rap. The name "projector" was stricken from the sales lexicon. "Big screen" became the new descriptive term. Recent History On February 22, 1994 a doubt was raised over the HDTV standard being used in Japan by Akimisa Egawa, director general of the Broadcasting Administration Bureau at the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications. He made a comment that became widely reported around the world. "Japan," he said, "would now step into the all-digital domain." MUSE would be sacrificed. A shudder went through Japanese institutions and giant manufacturers alike. The Japanese Electronic Industries Association quickly called a press conference the following day and denied that anyone else was in agreement with Mr. Egawa. Mr. Egawa was reported to have quickly recanted his "proposal" and talks of his resignation went on the news services. Has a new doubt penetrated the minds of Japanese' consumers as a result of Mr. Egawa's observation? I don't believe that there has ever been anything other than doubt in the minds of the Japanese consumers regarding the choice of MUSE for Japan. Shortly after the start of the Hi-Vision 8 hour per day experimental MUSE broadcast service in 1991 I went to Japan to report on how the new roll out was going. After visiting Mr. Kumabe at the Hi-Vision Promotion Association facility I went to the Akihabari (electronic town) zone where I found both HDTV and widescreen NTSC sets for sale. In one up-scale "export" store I inquired to the sales manager how customers were reacting to HDTV. "Oh," he said, "there is a very big problem in Japan. Japan has old technology, while the United States has new digital technology." I found similar comments from sales people all over Japan. Some were not knowledgeable on any aspect of HDTV. They could not answer the simplest question. No peace-of-mind would be found with them. The manufacturers and the government had become suspect. "OK, we know you spent a lot of money going this way, but you may have gone the wrong way and we need to know that objectively. When I first read the MPT story my reaction was, fine. Japan has again joined the international community in pursuit of the HDTV Holy Grail--a harmonized international standard. But that is what we need now to put the consumer and professional buyers at ease so they can buy something. They are not ill-informed and know that the struggle among "enlightened" engineers is to deliver a fully unstoppable standard that is fitted for every nation. It has to be a solution that the politicians cannot destroy. So, why get bogged down with a regional standard when the breakthrough is coming for an international one? We need to have stable standards which everyone can trust. Rhe stakes are too high for regional attempts. Three years ago I was asked to give a talk before Japanese visitors attending the National Association of Broadcasters Convention in Las Vegas. I knew my message was unwanted. "Japan," I said, "would be best served if its first efforts in HDTV failed." This message was not well received, even less understood. A failure would focus upon a recovery and would produce a more powerful standard. If Japan is moving to digital Mr. Egawa has served Japan well. The payoff for re-entering the international dialog on all-digital HDTV is that Japan can regain international influence. Dale Cripps