Don,
Oh well I may have to go ahead and buy the TiVo HD 10-250. I did not want to do this since it will be outdated pretty soon.
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This is a difficult time to buy ANY DirecTV HD receivers, as it is clear all current HD models are obsolete now. The only reason is if you can accept the cost as a possible "throwaway" in anything from a month from now or up to 2 years until sometime in 2007. The cities to get HD locals sometime soon have been announced. You might check if your location is one of them. If not a HR 10-250 will probably work until 2007 just fine. Also in most of these cities you can get all the HD channels OTA with the HR10-250 now. Providing these HD locals to those markets is a competition issue with the cable companies in those cities so the customer does not need an OTA antenna. (and if history is a guide OTA reception beats DirecTV quality everytime!)
See this link:
http://ces.engadget.com/entry/1234000430026331/
"With 13 total satellites already up or planned for use by 2007, DirecTV will be launching high definition local channels in the second half of 2005 in twelve markets. The first cities will be New York, Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Washington DC, Detroit, and Tampa. HD locals will be transmitted with MPEG4 AVC HD transmission (the first live demo will be shown on the CES floor), but users will need a new satellite receiver to receive those MPEG4 AVC feeds and perhaps a new satellite dish (they completely dodged the new dish question)."
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It was something like two years after DirecTV started HDTV channels before they got the first HD DVR ( HR 10-250) on the market. During that time I bought two HD D* receivers so I could get their HD channels- a Toshiba that overheated and failed just after the warranty expired and a Sony I kept as a backup in case my HR 10-250 fails.
I have seen nothing from DirecTV that says they will provide new HD DVR capability just for the 500 new HD local channels. In fact I have had three conversations with DirecTV customer service about their current Tivo HD listings in the HR10-250 for the local digital channels in my market. The Tivo listings and the "Guide" are provided for my local digital channels included in the fee I pay DirecTV , but the local channel listings are wrong!. DirecTV tells me they are "not responsible" for correct listings for channels I get OTA and refuse to correct the local OTA data in the HR10-250 Guide and Tivo listings. I even contacted Tivo who makes up the listings, but no results.
This is some of the background on why I don't expect a new HD DVR anytime soon, but I agree with you - I hope I am wrong. However the 1650 HD channels to roll out in 2007 will demand new receivers for all HD customers.