The red laser DVD, that is. With Blu-ray player prices steadily dropping and more aggressive discounts on upcoming releases, it's time to move on.
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HDTV Expert - Is it time to kill the DVD?
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(Yes, my Subject heading is one of my favorite quotes from "Spaceballs".)
Pete, we're not far apart on this one, as I question how much longer the DVD will remain a viable distribution media. But I think you're a bit early calling for the end of DVD players. While most readers of HDTV Magazine appreciate the finer details of home entertainment systems (both literally and figuratively), I have to believe that the majority of the U.S. market cares a lot about whether a product costs $30 or $130. That extra hundred dollars for a BD player is a deal breaker for many households in this country right now. The success of RedBox is strong evidence that there is adequate demand for video technology that is "good enough".
I think the point where our future visions diverge is on the BD itself; I'm not yet convinced that it won't be supplanted by digital distribution long before it can reach penetration numbers that come close to those of DVD today.
Alfred
HDTV Almanac
Pete, we're not far apart on this one, as I question how much longer the DVD will remain a viable distribution media. But I think you're a bit early calling for the end of DVD players. While most readers of HDTV Magazine appreciate the finer details of home entertainment systems (both literally and figuratively), I have to believe that the majority of the U.S. market cares a lot about whether a product costs $30 or $130. That extra hundred dollars for a BD player is a deal breaker for many households in this country right now. The success of RedBox is strong evidence that there is adequate demand for video technology that is "good enough".
I think the point where our future visions diverge is on the BD itself; I'm not yet convinced that it won't be supplanted by digital distribution long before it can reach penetration numbers that come close to those of DVD today.
Alfred
HDTV Almanac
If price trends are any indication, player costs will drop much faster as we head into the 2010 holiday selling season. That, in turn, will drive demand. I think we will see at least a dozen BD players priced at $99 or less by Christmas, with some dipping as low as $79. The 'el cheapo' $30 models are being usurped by Itunes video and iPod Touches anyway.
There's no telling how successful Blu-ray will ultimately be, as a format. Having the network interface will be very important, though.
The growth in BD player sales this year surprised me, as did the number of Avatar discs sold in the BD format. So it's still a contender.
There's no telling how successful Blu-ray will ultimately be, as a format. Having the network interface will be very important, though.
The growth in BD player sales this year surprised me, as did the number of Avatar discs sold in the BD format. So it's still a contender.
Maybe I'm more of a pessimist than I thought, but the first thing I thought of when I read your article was, "Wait, how many people are there who have no idea what Blu-Ray is?" For that matter, who know what a DVD is? Maybe that's extreme, but it's still something to consider. You've got to get people educated before you can sell them something. Of course, I'm reminded of all the VCRs that had the time blinking at 12:00 forever while the users went right on playing rented tapes. Maybe it isn't as bad as I picture.
The major brands will likely stop producing 99% of their DVD models in the next year or two, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the no name/super budget and store-specific brands (ex: Insignia) continue manufacturing them for the next 4 to 5 years, if not longer.
Despite cassette tapes no longer being mass-produced, car stereo head units and basic home stereo shelf systems are still being produced and sold with cassette players - and that's with digital files (and to an extent, CDs) dominating 100% of the music market here in the West.
I actually wouldn't be surprised if DVDs continue to be produced for 10 more years or so.
A driving force behind that thought is that HD has taken forever to be adopted on a widespread level, and I have a feeling that there is a (surprisingly) larger # of people who, even though they regularly watch shows on the HD versions of their favorite channels, and are aware of the improved quality, they STILL, at the least occasionally, watch some of those shows/programming on the non-HD versions of the channels. Whether it's because the last person who was watching the set was down in the non-HD channel group, or the person accidentially hit 04 instead of 704 (using Time Warner Cable here in NY as an example) and decided to just keep watching in non-HD, it seems like it could happen more often than we'd hope.
With that in the mix, so long as DVDs remain cheaper both new & used versus their Blu-ray counterparts, manufacturers (big and/or small) will keep making the players.
Definitely agreed that for Blu-ray to really take off, you need to stop making the DVD discs. Too bad that it's just highly unlikely that it will happen that way!
Despite cassette tapes no longer being mass-produced, car stereo head units and basic home stereo shelf systems are still being produced and sold with cassette players - and that's with digital files (and to an extent, CDs) dominating 100% of the music market here in the West.
I actually wouldn't be surprised if DVDs continue to be produced for 10 more years or so.
A driving force behind that thought is that HD has taken forever to be adopted on a widespread level, and I have a feeling that there is a (surprisingly) larger # of people who, even though they regularly watch shows on the HD versions of their favorite channels, and are aware of the improved quality, they STILL, at the least occasionally, watch some of those shows/programming on the non-HD versions of the channels. Whether it's because the last person who was watching the set was down in the non-HD channel group, or the person accidentially hit 04 instead of 704 (using Time Warner Cable here in NY as an example) and decided to just keep watching in non-HD, it seems like it could happen more often than we'd hope.
With that in the mix, so long as DVDs remain cheaper both new & used versus their Blu-ray counterparts, manufacturers (big and/or small) will keep making the players.
Definitely agreed that for Blu-ray to really take off, you need to stop making the DVD discs. Too bad that it's just highly unlikely that it will happen that way!
Whether it's because the last person who was watching the set was down in the non-HD channel group, or the person accidentially hit 04 instead of 704 (using Time Warner Cable here in NY as an example) and decided to just keep watching in non-HD
I got a first-hand view of this a couple of months ago when I visited a cousin in Virginia. She and her father both - although they were watching a new LCD HD set powered by FIOS - would insist on watching programming on the SD channels, because "that's the channels we know." Even after I would change the channel to the HD alternative, since they "couldn't tell the difference (I could!)", they didn't think twice the next time going back to SD.
As I said in my previous post, you gotta educate the user, and get them convinced there's a difference! Without that, Blu-Ray/Shmu-Ray; even when the price reaches $30 for a BD player. The folks who already have DVD won't feel the need to switch until they can be convinced there's a good reason.
BTW, my BD player up-converts DVD output to 1080 - at least it says it does.
I got a first-hand view of this a couple of months ago when I visited a cousin in Virginia. She and her father both - although they were watching a new LCD HD set powered by FIOS - would insist on watching programming on the SD channels, because "that's the channels we know." Even after I would change the channel to the HD alternative, since they "couldn't tell the difference (I could!)", they didn't think twice the next time going back to SD.
As I said in my previous post, you gotta educate the user, and get them convinced there's a difference! Without that, Blu-Ray/Shmu-Ray; even when the price reaches $30 for a BD player. The folks who already have DVD won't feel the need to switch until they can be convinced there's a good reason.
BTW, my BD player up-converts DVD output to 1080 - at least it says it does.
There's no telling how successful Blu-ray will ultimately be, as a format.
It depends on the encoding as CDs are every bit as capable of presenting HD as is BlueRay.As I never purchase, rent, or stream movies for me they could throw out BlueRay tomorrow. As it's from Sony I wish they would.
As CDs are still around and going strong, I think DVDs will be around for a very long time. When BlueRay drives are the same price as DVD readers then I might consider one, but I think by then the method of distribution will either be either streaming, or downloading, for rent or purchase. A 10 to 20 % market penetration still makes if a very small player by comparison with other methods of distribution.
Had Sony dropped the price as soon as they became the main industry standard they could easily have two to three times the present market penetration which would give other methods of distribution a lot more competition. However, Sony chose to get as much as they could out of the market short term and that may eventually prove to be the undoing of BlueRay.
My TV and my computer can stream from the Internet. (I'll wait for general distribution instead of paying a premium) Why would I bother spending all that extra money to gain the ability to do more of what I could already do.
As for first run on BlueRay, If I really wanted to watch something I'd go as high as $5. It's not worth more than that to me.
I like technology and am more or less an early adopter, but this is an exception as I don't see me gaining anything worth while.
It depends on the encoding as CDs are every bit as capable of presenting HD as is BlueRay.As I never purchase, rent, or stream movies for me they could throw out BlueRay tomorrow. As it's from Sony I wish they would.
As CDs are still around and going strong, I think DVDs will be around for a very long time. When BlueRay drives are the same price as DVD readers then I might consider one, but I think by then the method of distribution will either be either streaming, or downloading, for rent or purchase. A 10 to 20 % market penetration still makes if a very small player by comparison with other methods of distribution.
Had Sony dropped the price as soon as they became the main industry standard they could easily have two to three times the present market penetration which would give other methods of distribution a lot more competition. However, Sony chose to get as much as they could out of the market short term and that may eventually prove to be the undoing of BlueRay.
My TV and my computer can stream from the Internet. (I'll wait for general distribution instead of paying a premium) Why would I bother spending all that extra money to gain the ability to do more of what I could already do.
As for first run on BlueRay, If I really wanted to watch something I'd go as high as $5. It's not worth more than that to me.
I like technology and am more or less an early adopter, but this is an exception as I don't see me gaining anything worth while.
I hate to be so crass....but the (deadly) stampedes at Walmart didn't start until player prices hit $29.95. Now Walmart does what? $300b a year? So you have to figure they have a finger on the pulse of a big part of the market. My point....BR ain't cheap enough - and 200m people in America wouldn't know a photo from an inkblot. DVD has a place until we bottom certain things out. And since market size drives all...it isn't going anywhere.
For the rest of us, viva la revolution. BR is just gorgeous. And it is growing beautifully even without a porn market - go figure.
For the rest of us, viva la revolution. BR is just gorgeous. And it is growing beautifully even without a porn market - go figure.
Had Sony dropped the price as soon as they became the main industry standard they could easily have two to three times the present market penetration which would give other methods of distribution a lot more competition. However, Sony chose to get as much as they could out of the market short term and that may eventually prove to be the undoing of BlueRay.
I recognize that you're not a fan of Sony. I agree that they made some bone-headed product decisions over the years. (I will never again buy a product that requires Memory Stick!) But I don't think it's fair to saddle Sony with being greedy when it comes to BD player pricing.
I don't know for certain, but I expect that Sony was selling the early BD players at a loss. If you recall, the early blue lasers were made with unobtainium, and demand greatly exceeded the production capacity. I believe that Sony also sold early PlayStations with BD players in them at a loss. (I'm pretty certain that they sold their OLED TVs at a loss.) I have no doubt that Sony is willing to buy market and mind share for new products, rather than simply try to soak the early adopters.
Alfred
HDTV Almanac
I recognize that you're not a fan of Sony. I agree that they made some bone-headed product decisions over the years. (I will never again buy a product that requires Memory Stick!) But I don't think it's fair to saddle Sony with being greedy when it comes to BD player pricing.
I don't know for certain, but I expect that Sony was selling the early BD players at a loss. If you recall, the early blue lasers were made with unobtainium, and demand greatly exceeded the production capacity. I believe that Sony also sold early PlayStations with BD players in them at a loss. (I'm pretty certain that they sold their OLED TVs at a loss.) I have no doubt that Sony is willing to buy market and mind share for new products, rather than simply try to soak the early adopters.
Alfred
HDTV Almanac
And let's not forget that after HD-DVD was killed, plenty of non-Sony mfrs began making Blu-Ray players which is how we ended up with the relatively low prices we see today. It takes time for mfrs to ramp up and supplier parts to catch up.
Anybody who could afford a HDTV 2 years ago could easily afford a $300 BD player. Price had virtually nothing to do with it. The only way BD would have "taken off" is if it could have been sold for the same as DVD players which were as low as $30. Not to mention all of the folks with DVD players built into their vehicles.
Most people simply don't care enough about picture quality to pony up for a BD player. They already have upconverting DVD players and a large library of DVDs and they're happy with it. That's the bottom line.
You also have to consider that in order for streaming or downloading you must have a high speed broadband internet connection AND a device capable of streaming or downloading and playing the content. That automatically cuts out a large percentage of potential buyers.
Then there is the convenience of owning a disc that you can take with you, loan out, play anywhere without an internet connection, etc. It can also yield much higher quality than most streamed versions, at least for now. And BD is affordable now so price isn't the issue.
Anybody who could afford a HDTV 2 years ago could easily afford a $300 BD player. Price had virtually nothing to do with it. The only way BD would have "taken off" is if it could have been sold for the same as DVD players which were as low as $30. Not to mention all of the folks with DVD players built into their vehicles.
Most people simply don't care enough about picture quality to pony up for a BD player. They already have upconverting DVD players and a large library of DVDs and they're happy with it. That's the bottom line.
You also have to consider that in order for streaming or downloading you must have a high speed broadband internet connection AND a device capable of streaming or downloading and playing the content. That automatically cuts out a large percentage of potential buyers.
Then there is the convenience of owning a disc that you can take with you, loan out, play anywhere without an internet connection, etc. It can also yield much higher quality than most streamed versions, at least for now. And BD is affordable now so price isn't the issue.
I believe that the “kill DVD” idea of the title is overreaching when expressed that way, except for the last line of the column.
I understand and I agree that soon Blu-ray players would be very accessible in price to consumers that usually would buy a DVD player instead, and be benefitted by investing similar dollars on a unit that plays both formats. “Killing DVD players” at that particular point in the future seems reasonable when for equivalent money one can get more.
Another different issue is the concept of “kill the DVD disk”, that is a media issue, and just by looking at possibly 3 or 4 DVD players currently installed on every home (main unit, portables, computer, etc) that could be in the order of 400 million units that would not be able to play a new movie that does not exist any longer as DVD if released only in Blu-ray. Such situation would make the idea of killing DVD (the disk) very unpopular even if no more DVD players would be produced, and even if rentals could still be strong.
Looking back at the niche Laserdisc, when DVD was introduced in 1996 the format took an immediate downhill, but that format had only 2% penetration. DVD is different; DVD was a large success story in consumer electronics penetration “relative to the time it took to do it”. Blu-ray format penetration is comparably larger relative to similar periods.
One possible scenario is that disc manufacturers could start including always a DVD version together with their Blu-ray releases so DVD player owners could still buy new titles they can play as DVD and also be enticed to get a Blu-player for a disc they have purchased already on the set. Only then I could see possible the “kill the DVD disc” idea because it offers a migration path that does not disenfranchise hundreds of millions of legacy DVD players.
The secret there is calculating an attractive price in between DVD and Blu-ray that could be reasonable to DVD owners thinking in a near Blu-ray future, and also reasonable to a studio to take some loss on today’s Blu-ray price with an investing attitude of fast increase of Blu-ray sales from DVD owners migrating to Blu-ray earlier than if let alone.
In other words, DVD as a disc must continue for sale alone or as a part of Blu-ray set, not just for rental. If a studio would produce the disc anyway why not include it with the Blu-ray as a set at an affordable price that would entice consumers to a faster migration path to Blu-ray discs and players without abandoning the legacy DVD players they already have.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra
I understand and I agree that soon Blu-ray players would be very accessible in price to consumers that usually would buy a DVD player instead, and be benefitted by investing similar dollars on a unit that plays both formats. “Killing DVD players” at that particular point in the future seems reasonable when for equivalent money one can get more.
Another different issue is the concept of “kill the DVD disk”, that is a media issue, and just by looking at possibly 3 or 4 DVD players currently installed on every home (main unit, portables, computer, etc) that could be in the order of 400 million units that would not be able to play a new movie that does not exist any longer as DVD if released only in Blu-ray. Such situation would make the idea of killing DVD (the disk) very unpopular even if no more DVD players would be produced, and even if rentals could still be strong.
Looking back at the niche Laserdisc, when DVD was introduced in 1996 the format took an immediate downhill, but that format had only 2% penetration. DVD is different; DVD was a large success story in consumer electronics penetration “relative to the time it took to do it”. Blu-ray format penetration is comparably larger relative to similar periods.
One possible scenario is that disc manufacturers could start including always a DVD version together with their Blu-ray releases so DVD player owners could still buy new titles they can play as DVD and also be enticed to get a Blu-player for a disc they have purchased already on the set. Only then I could see possible the “kill the DVD disc” idea because it offers a migration path that does not disenfranchise hundreds of millions of legacy DVD players.
The secret there is calculating an attractive price in between DVD and Blu-ray that could be reasonable to DVD owners thinking in a near Blu-ray future, and also reasonable to a studio to take some loss on today’s Blu-ray price with an investing attitude of fast increase of Blu-ray sales from DVD owners migrating to Blu-ray earlier than if let alone.
In other words, DVD as a disc must continue for sale alone or as a part of Blu-ray set, not just for rental. If a studio would produce the disc anyway why not include it with the Blu-ray as a set at an affordable price that would entice consumers to a faster migration path to Blu-ray discs and players without abandoning the legacy DVD players they already have.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra
Rodolfo, you make a number of good points, as always.
DVD was a large success story in consumer electronics penetration “relative to the time it took to do it”.
However, consumer electronics remains more or less a zero sum game. Yes, DVD achieved tremendous market penetration in a very short time, but keep in mind that this was at the expense of VHS. I suspect that VHS penetration was close to what DVD enjoys now. Why was DVD able to push it out of the way? Because the technology was better. Personal computers replaced typewriters, audio cassettes replaced 8-track (and were then replaced by CDs), and 3.5-inch floppy disks were replaced by USB drives. In each case, the new technology was better, and the old technology disappeared more or less overnight.
I think that's the lens you need to look through at DVDs. They do a great job, but just as online MP3s have devastated the audio CD market, so might online video take a large chunk of the DVD business. And I suspect sooner than even we optimists might think. (See what I have to say about Google TV in my HDTV Almanac on Monday.)
Alfred
HDTV Almanac
DVD was a large success story in consumer electronics penetration “relative to the time it took to do it”.
However, consumer electronics remains more or less a zero sum game. Yes, DVD achieved tremendous market penetration in a very short time, but keep in mind that this was at the expense of VHS. I suspect that VHS penetration was close to what DVD enjoys now. Why was DVD able to push it out of the way? Because the technology was better. Personal computers replaced typewriters, audio cassettes replaced 8-track (and were then replaced by CDs), and 3.5-inch floppy disks were replaced by USB drives. In each case, the new technology was better, and the old technology disappeared more or less overnight.
I think that's the lens you need to look through at DVDs. They do a great job, but just as online MP3s have devastated the audio CD market, so might online video take a large chunk of the DVD business. And I suspect sooner than even we optimists might think. (See what I have to say about Google TV in my HDTV Almanac on Monday.)
Alfred
HDTV Almanac
Over the years I've been collecting audio tapes, records, film, laser disks, videotapes, DVDs, and Blu-ray disks. This is a particularly sore subject with me because I'm currently moving a house full of these relics and wondering why this is even necessary. We seem to worship objects when all we're really interested in is content.
I think in a very few years all this will change. The era of the objectification of content will end to be replaced with low-cost virtual memory stored in the cloud. The advantages of this idea are many. A fire can't wipe out those movies and photos of the children. No longer would we have to fill our living room with multiple pieces of hardware that serve different standards. In the near future, most people will store information at the highest resolution they can afford, and then turn this into sound and pictures at the best resolution their current home equipment can provide. Your display and sound equipment may go out of date, but the information will always be there for whatever equipment is available at the time.
There should be a universal cloud archiving system that stores information in a way that, baring armageddon, would serve to preserve humankind's works forever, because, to keep going down the road we're on is, frankly, just crazy.
I think in a very few years all this will change. The era of the objectification of content will end to be replaced with low-cost virtual memory stored in the cloud. The advantages of this idea are many. A fire can't wipe out those movies and photos of the children. No longer would we have to fill our living room with multiple pieces of hardware that serve different standards. In the near future, most people will store information at the highest resolution they can afford, and then turn this into sound and pictures at the best resolution their current home equipment can provide. Your display and sound equipment may go out of date, but the information will always be there for whatever equipment is available at the time.
There should be a universal cloud archiving system that stores information in a way that, baring armageddon, would serve to preserve humankind's works forever, because, to keep going down the road we're on is, frankly, just crazy.
Alfred,
My response was tailored to cover only the subject of the column (kill DVD to move to Blu-ray, both pre-recorded formats). The subject you are bringing (streaming/downloading music and video rather than owning pre-recorded media) is different and requires more depth, and it was already discussed on another column you wrote (although oriented to Blu-ray, not DVD):
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/columns/2010/02/hdtv-almanac-68-bluray-player.php
To which I also commented under the “Everyone has an opinion” post.
You mentioned that you did not have a Blu-ray player yet (after 4 years of been introduced), if I would be you I would make every effort to buy a Blu-ray player and discs to appreciate firsthand the difference in video and audio quality compared to streamed media and every other format/distribution system.
I bought the first Sony Blu-ray player in 2006 for $1000, and responding to your comments, I doubt it was subsidized as the PS3 was ($806 parts/manufacturing that sold as $499, page 228); however Toshiba subsidized their first HD-DVD player HD-A1 ($674 of BOM sold for $499, page 254).
Details on 2007 HDTV Technology Review (consumer edition):
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/reports/hdtv-technology-review.php
The future can bring positives and negatives on either front (net neutrality, restricted bandwidth, over-compression, practicality and consumer preference, etc.), and one should not disregard how important collecting media and pursuing uncompromised video/audio quality could be for many consumers, while for others may not be.
In other words, respecting both choices (and explicitly expressing such respect) should be a prerequisite to provide a balanced view of the matter.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra
My response was tailored to cover only the subject of the column (kill DVD to move to Blu-ray, both pre-recorded formats). The subject you are bringing (streaming/downloading music and video rather than owning pre-recorded media) is different and requires more depth, and it was already discussed on another column you wrote (although oriented to Blu-ray, not DVD):
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/columns/2010/02/hdtv-almanac-68-bluray-player.php
To which I also commented under the “Everyone has an opinion” post.
You mentioned that you did not have a Blu-ray player yet (after 4 years of been introduced), if I would be you I would make every effort to buy a Blu-ray player and discs to appreciate firsthand the difference in video and audio quality compared to streamed media and every other format/distribution system.
I bought the first Sony Blu-ray player in 2006 for $1000, and responding to your comments, I doubt it was subsidized as the PS3 was ($806 parts/manufacturing that sold as $499, page 228); however Toshiba subsidized their first HD-DVD player HD-A1 ($674 of BOM sold for $499, page 254).
Details on 2007 HDTV Technology Review (consumer edition):
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/reports/hdtv-technology-review.php
The future can bring positives and negatives on either front (net neutrality, restricted bandwidth, over-compression, practicality and consumer preference, etc.), and one should not disregard how important collecting media and pursuing uncompromised video/audio quality could be for many consumers, while for others may not be.
In other words, respecting both choices (and explicitly expressing such respect) should be a prerequisite to provide a balanced view of the matter.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra