HD DVD Rallies Consumer Audience in 2007 Driving Nearly One Million Dedicated Player Sales in North America

Well, thank you all for trying. I've asked enough times. I give up.

- Miller

The cathartic experience has none of the usual logic or conclusion. Then again neither does getting run over by a truck. I think we all, especially those who believed HD DVD might be better, feel the same catharsis. And all of us are wondering where that truck was going in such a hurry - given the clear possibility of a plasticless future.

IMHO this thread is done, long live the technologies we love to live with. (ed. maybe not.)

If your arguments were valid then why did we not see these problems with standard DVD? You can buy a DVD player now for $19 and DVDs are also dirt cheap. Why would Blu-Ray be any different?

Because HD discs may not achieve the same level of penetration that standard DVD has. It may end up becoming a niche format a la laserdisc. So prices could remain fairly high. Although I currently own neither format, I have to say that what Warners is doing (especially now announcing that they are even going to delay catalog titles on HD-DVD to ensure that as few people as possible purchase it) has turned me off to the HDM format. I see more movies in HD than I'll ever see on BR. And some titles with video quality that is stronger than what BR has displayed for those same movies.

And of course, there are other outlets becoming available as well. Whether they are pracitical or good enough depends on the individual. But I just don't think a mass audience is going to run out and get BR. HD-DVD would have allowed many who are "on the fence" to take the plunge at reasonable price points. And that would certainly have spurred the growth of HDM on both formats. I think that Warners has short-sightedly torpedoed that. Just my opinion...the landscape may be totally different in a couple years.

We can argue the technological differences forever but that won't change the average consumer's perception.


What can we possibly gain from keeping 2 formats that would offset the hassle of having 2 formats?

You either have to commit to one format and forego content made only for the other format or you have to buy 2 players that deliver essentially the same content at the same resolution. If you're exchanging movies with friends you have to know which format(s) they have.

And there is no way it can be cheaper to mfr movies in both formats or half the movies in one and half in the other.

Go ask those game publishers and retailers if they would prefer one media format over 4 (PS3, Wii, Xbox, PC) and I guarantee you they'll say yes. It definitely costs more but apparently the profits of selling on multiple platforms outweighs the cost. But it's apples and oranges because each platform has something unique whether it's a particular game (Gran Turismo on PS, Mario on Nintendo, etc.) or controller or other feature.
What difference does the average consumer see when comparing HD DVD and Blu-Ray? None. Both deliver a movie in HD with surround sound.

Apples and oranges.

There is more from Greg, allchemie, explaining what the distribution chain wants.

T

Akirby doesn't know squat about what the average consumer wants. When HD DVD broke the $200 price barrier their sales skyrocketed, totally blowing out standalone blueray players. He asks what we can possibly gain from keeping two formats -- and the simple answer is lower prices. Showing more of his infinite wisdom, he states that there is no way it can be cheaper to manufacture.... half the movies in one format and half in the other. Try starting off with one format having half the manufacturing costs of the other. Most importantly however, is the fact that with two formats you have competition. There is no way to overstate the importance of competition when it comes to prices. If there were only one cell phone company in every area, there is no question that there would be less duplication of facilities and lower overall costs -- to the cell phone company. But does anyone question that the consumers would pay higher prices with less competition? (and yes there are entirely different and incompatible formats in the cell phone business).

You guys do have one thing correct however, and that is that the distribution chain would prefer one format. The distribution chain almost ways wants less competition. Less competition usually means higher profits and prices. And that, my friends, is why we have contracts and conspiracies designed to reduce competition; in response to which, we have the antitrust laws.

I didn't respond to allchemieGreg's answers because I thought since they were so ludicrous that nobody would would accord them any credibility. I accurately criticized Dale's reliance on the self-serving allegations of studio executives, and along comes Greg with all the answers because he has uncles at the studios, who tell him things like "when huge rental outfits like Netflix tell them that only 0.3% of the discs they rent out are high-Def it gives the studios heartburn." I think Gregg's uncle is the only one who doesn't know that Netflix puts almost all of its high Def customers on long wait lists because it can not get enough HD to satisfy demand.

I will also agree, however that unless an antitrust action is filed, the format war is over -- and we (and I do mean WE) have lost. So say goodbye to under $200 HD disc players and BOGO disc deals.
Phil

There is no way to overstate the importance of competition when it comes to prices. If there were only one cell phone company in every area, there is no question that there would be less duplication of facilities and lower overall costs -- to the cell phone company. But does anyone question that the consumers would pay higher prices with less competition?


A good example is cable TV. Cable subscribers do not have a choice as to which cable system they can use. Most areas have only one. Subsequently, cable rates go throught the roof. Comcast, for example, raises their prices every single year! (With 2008 providing their biggest rate increase ever!) And often, the consumer gets nothing for the extra cost they pay. The only other option a consumer has is satellite (not always practical for everyone). And when someone cancels cable to switch to DISH or Direct TV, THEN the cable company may offer a lower rate to keep the subscriber. But otherwise, cable companies can have their rates run rampant.

I can choose between two cable providers and it has not reflected a drop in pricing at all! If you don't like cable go satellite and those prices aren't dropping either.

Akirby doesn't know squat about what the average consumer wants.

Yet you keep ignoring the fact that the average consumer and industry asked, requested, begged, and petitioned for one format prior.

I think I'm just as qualified to know what the average consumer wants as anyone else.

Why does everyone think that having one format means no competition? Every major electronics mfr will be making a blu-ray player - guaranteed.

How is this any different that standard DVDs? We didn't seem to need two formats there and dvd and player prices are lower than ever, even before HD DVD and Blu-Ray caught on.

The competition will be for content, availability, features and pricing - just like standard DVDs today. Please stop the "No Competition" crap because it's simply not true.

I think I'm just as qualified to know what the average consumer wants as anyone else.

Absolutely -- squat.

Why does everyone think that having one format means no competition? Every major electronics mfr will be making a blu-ray player - guaranteed...
The competition will be for content, availability, features and pricing - just like standard DVDs today. Please stop the "No Competition" crap because it's simply not true.

You keep on overlooking the fact that they are two different types of competition here -- hardware and software. Without format competition there will be no software competition; there will be one manufacturer for each title --period. Think of cell phones -- even if there were only one cell phone "provider" there would still be many different brands of cell phones to choose from. As I've said before, all those disc deals we see now will be gone after there is no longer any disc competition.

Phil

I can choose between two cable providers and it has not reflected a drop in pricing at all! If you don't like cable go satellite and those prices aren't dropping either.

Competition between two cable companies is rare, and usually only in small overlap areas -- not sufficient to present any real competition. However, Fios does present true competition; and oh what a difference! In December, I received a notice from Comcast that my TV/broadband rates were going up $20 per month; when I complained I was simply told that they raise their rates every year and that's what it is. They offered me their so-called triple play, for only five dollars a month more. I called Verizon, and they offered me their comparable triple play for $15 per month less than Comcast. When I called Comcast to cancel, they countered by offering to cut $25 per month off their triple play price (thus giving me free telephone service for my current pre-increase price). When I called Verizon back to cancel my order, they offer to reduce their price to even below Comcast. And that, my friend Richard, is what true competition looks like.

Yet you keep ignoring the fact that the average consumer and industry asked, requested, begged, and petitioned for one format prior.

Funny, you never asked me. Which, while we are on the point brings up the real issue of what the consumer wants. I told you earlier what I and those I have spoken to want. I think if the issue were properly presented to consumers generally they would agree with me. However, the consumer has been presented with the issue as: do you want a repeat of the beta/VHS wars? Even I would answer that "no." I have noted before that there simply is no comparison between those wars and the current issue. A couple of salient differences: 1) beta/VHS started out primarily as a recording medium, 2) when beta/VHS became a movie purchase/rental medium it was predominantly through thousands of small mom-and-pop "clubs" on almost every street corner. Netflix was the first to recognize how phenomenally different the new disc media was from the old tapes; and now does more business than 10,000 of the old clubs ever did. If no one other than Amazon and Netflix stocked HD DVD discs, we would have more functional format competition than there ever was with the old tapes.

I will admit that you guys have succeeded in scaring enough consumers that you have not only impeded HD disc penetration but also have given psychic support to those who would like to see a single monopolized HD disc format. Unfortunately, since you have chosen the more expensive of the two formats, you have doomed HD disc media in its future real battle with Internet HD downloads -- congratulations.

Phil

You keep overlooking the fact that the average consumer and industry asked, requested, begged, and petitioned for one format prior. How can you be serving the consumer if you are going to ignore what they wanted? If anything you seem hell bent on proving how wrong they were when the outcome tells all.

Ya, you can go on and on about free markets versus monopoly, how HD DVD player prices were so low and disc prices low but the government didn't pass a law requiring all studios to provide content on both formats for say 5 years for a truly FAIR format war of carrier, hardware and interface which never would have happened. Both camps were involved in anti trust foul play ( anybody surprised? ) so as you point out Toshiba is not going to do anything.

All you and this format war has proven is the collective wisdom of the past and the collective wisdom prior to the war; one format.

The only collective wisdom you represent now is the is of the present and the self serving wishes of those being abandoned.

Is there a blu-ray owner crying over any of the points you have made? Not one post yet...

Cheap players and free movies were nothing more than bribes in an effort to win market penetration and win the format war. There is no way it could have continued. At some point one format was going to win or they would have resolved to support both formats - either way the bribes would not have continued and prices would return to normal (in other words - high).

Maybe now they can take all that money (including studio and distributor/retailer payouts) and start ramping up blu-ray players, disc manufacturing and new features.

It worked perfectly fine for standard DVDs. How is this any different?

I think we need to agree to disagree on this.

I don't think anyone here will argue against "more competition is better". Did the consumers want one format from the start? Sure. Will there be enough competition within the Blu-ray camp to keep prices dropping? Sure. Could the movie industry support two formats if all studios were on board? I think so.

Does anyone here think there would have been a format war if all studios released in both formats from the beginning?

I still believe HD DVD is the more consumer-friendly format, but I can't say that I'd recommend it to anyone now with the way studio support appears to be going.

My $0.02,

- Shane

The only problem with the dual format -- one format on each side -- is that the medium for each is not the same. You would need to bond two separate disk pressings together if you sold it as one disk (and there is a warping issue due to the materials used that is not trivial) in one box. You add one more pressing cost for everyone forever. Ok, so you don't do it that way and make two separate pressings to be in one box (very confusing) or two boxes and put them into the marketplace side-by-side as is now seen at Hollywood Video and other retailers. It is still a cost to do that which is going to be passed on somehow to the end users. It could be done. If the two million or so HD DTV machine owners demand it with enough dollars it will be there. I suspect that there will be a business person who will see that there are a few million of these machines around the world begging for content and he or she can make a business out of product specifically made for that installed base. Looking to the brighter side of this dilemma it could even be that the installed base of HD DVD players is the basis for a first run limited edition movie distribution network. _Dale

The game industry supports Wii, Xbox 360, and PS3. The game industry just had another huge year with multiple formats. How many games would they sell if all games were multi-platform? The only things that hurts consumers is "exclusive" titles. Video games are much more complicated to develop then it is to burn the same VC-1 and HD audio codecs to both Blu-Ray and HD DVD.

Don't forget the menu systems (and maybe other things) are different in each format. HDi vs. BDJava language. Maybe there are already porting tools - that would only work if they were identical. Thus there is a cost to produce each format, just as there is to games.

Also the compression levels may be different in each format - even if using the same codec. That is a supposed selling point to BR, that it has more capacity and bit rate. You'd think it'd be used if it could.

Again HDi v BDJ is not as complicated as developing Xbox360 and PS3.

I've developed a lot of software in my days. Not this stuff but there is an old axiom that works here too - there is no such thing as a free lunch. Software is a pain in the rear...and even if stupidly easy to just port it, it still has to be specified, implemented well, configuration managed, quality assured, and business process managed. Otherwise no matter what you do you have chaos.

We're on the same side. I am invested in HD DVD alone, up to my neck. Heck I'm so foolish I just bought another one (that's 5 including XA1, and XA2s - I've spent some money here). But it's just crazy to argue for HD DVD anymore - as much as I am addicted to reading this and other forums. The market has been stomped. Sales of players were just shown to have dropped massively, even with price drops. I can't imagine Paramount/Dreamworks staying exclusive and the rest will probably backburner HD DVD if produce at all.

We're niche at best now. I'm used to it, I bought a ton of Laserdiscs at the end - I lived near Evolution Audio Video - they had the entire worlds remaining stock and it was cheap. It took me years to watch all the movies and I still have the best of them. That is where my head is...except there are not so many HD DVD titles. I'd hope there is at least a trickle

Developing a full game in 3D and programming it trump burning a movie with VC-1 and HD audio to a disk. You know this is true even if you have to program a few menus.

I'm wondering if anyone on this forum knows what is involved in porting a game from Xbox 360 to PS3 or vice-versa. I doubt you would have to re-write the entire game, but I'm not sure how much could be ported as-is ... anyone?

- Shane

Many Warner Brothers Movies use the same encoding for both 'HD' disc formats VC1.. and there are already user friendly menu porting programs from ULead{Corel} and CyberPower, which will take an encoded file and burn to the correct format, with menu's. It seems to be the 'Extra Feature' branching and 'in movie' PiP where HD-DVD currently needs extra programing as currently 'Blu' does not support these features and none of the current {settop} players {yes I know the PS3 has been DEMO'ed but read where it was really just a video playing and not a real michine demo} can be update to support the future 'Java/Blu-Live' feature.... But if I had a choose between no extra feautures and like many 'Blu' disc's have and still being able to view 'HD' movies from Warner on my 'HD-DVD' player.. give me the bare bones movie! And it has been reported in many forums where 'Blu-Ray' disc have not used more then 25gb of disc space? Using less disc space than the same HD-DVD movie from Warner due to the lack of extra features.

But it's just crazy to argue for HD DVD anymore - as much as I am addicted to reading this and other forums. The market has been stomped. Sales of players were just shown to have dropped massively, even with price drops.

First, sales number from the price drops aren't in yet.

As for the stomping, apparently those sales figures have been "misconstrued" (to put it graciously) by those Blue Meanies. See below:


NPD: Free Blu-ray player deals led to boosted sales this month
By Nate Mook, BetaNews
January 24, 2008, 2:46 PM

A report from NPD Group claimed Blu-ray standalone player sales accounted for 93 percent of the high-def market for the week ending January 12, but NPD itself won't stand behind the numbers, saying they were leaked and that weekly sales data is not a long-term indicator.

According to Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for NPD, the data "came from an NPD subscriber" and "wasn't approved for release from NPD." He added that the firm typically sees big fluctuations in sales volumes each week, and never makes long-term judgements based on weekly data.
"It reflects what was going on during that week," Baker said, adding that it wasn't smart to "extrapolate that out for six months."

So what went on the week ending January 12 that led to such high numbers in Blu-ray standalone player sales? Bundling deals with HDTVs, explained Baker. Sharp Blu-ray players accounted for over 30% of sales, as they were offered free to buyers of the company's LCD televisions.
Sony -- also accounting for one-third of sales -- had a similar $400-off deal for Blu-ray players when buying a Sony HDTV.

Panasonic, like Sharp, offered a free Blu-ray player and made up for the remaining third of units sold. Samsung Blu-ray sales were almost non-existent, as the company did not offer any special deals to TV buyers.
The NPD figures did not include Sony's PlayStation 3 or Microsoft's HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360 -- only standalone players.

Baker wouldn't get specific -- since NPD normally never even comments on weekly sales data -- but said there was some drop in HD DVD player sales. For its part, the HD DVD Promotional Group told BetaNews the weekly sales data was from before the HD DVD player price drop Toshiba announced last week.

Baker did provide BetaNews some insight as to how NPD counts sales. It receives its data from point-of-sale systems from a number of retail outlets across the United States. He would not say how many retailers send data to NPD, but said it was "double digits."

NPD's numbers do not include online sales from the likes of Amazon, where Toshiba's HD-A3 HD DVD player is the number one seller in the DVD player category and number 14 in all of electronics. By contrast, standalone Blu-ray players do not make the electronics list.


http://www.betanews.com/article/NPD_...nth/1201203983

Stomped.

I stand on my trite comment, accurate references or not. film11 is just building my case: Once bundling and any other deal you want to describe makes a sale...the buyer's best friend sees it... and they then go buy the same thing. (Probably before the first buyer starts cranking about the downsides). I'm sure there was a lot of that in the PS3 context, backed by the good reviews (it doesn't seem to be the games that sold it!).

BR is now an unrestrained choice to the non-particular customer. The one that just wants to feel secure in their purchase. HD DVD is seriously tainted with insecurity and as friends sell friends in BR, it will be the opposite in HD DVD...negative rumors (if not reality) will fly like the wind.

Niche, the best we can dream of.

Stomped.


Niche, the best we can dream of.

Don't give up the ship.... yet. It usually takes quite a while from the time of the unlawful act until the filing of an antitrust lawsuit. Although in this case, inasmuch as the damage is already being felt, I would expect a more rapid filing or a leak to the press. Moreover, even if an antitrust action is not filed, if someone can break the BR copy protection, the studios' anti-competitive conduct would be an excellent defense to a copyright infringement action(but..alas, I think it's also illegal).

Disclaimer: Although at one time I was a partner in a law firm that did antitrust work, I am now semi retired and limiting my practice to only representing municipalities (long-term clients only) against the natural gas industry.

Phil

Another old saying: At the same time, make peace like there is no war, make war as if there was no peace. I posit the "stomped' case. But I have not given up - ergo that last player, and I'm snatching up discs as much as I can (though mostly used or sales). I am hoping for the best, but have a rational to cover my spending, I try to talk that up to my (few) HD DVD friends (most of which hardly have bought any discs!!!).

I try to talk that up to my (few) HD DVD friends (most of which hardly have bought any discs!!!).

And there you have the crux of the problem. Very few people are willing to make a big investment either way right now.

Is there any reason why the features that everyone loves on HD DVD can't be added to the Blu-Ray specs and players? Wouldn't that solve the problem? Or it really just the "I hate Sony" syndrome?

Don't think the hardware fully supports the HD DVD standard - PIP specifically. That said I don't see why the blu-ray camp would allow it since that is exactly what this war was about; royalties, not only for Toshiba or Sony but for the benefactors as well which includes all the software.

Seems to me it would be in the best interest of Toshiba to partner with Sony at this point (if they're willing) as opposed to stubbornly holding on to a format with little to no studio backing.

Xbox 360 VS PS3 developing

Everything I have read indicates PS3 is significantly more difficult to program. The Cell is a radically different CPU, and I am not saying that is a good thing. On paper it looks like a killer, but developers have serious problems programming it. Some of this is due to poor development kits provided by Sony. I also read a developers blog a year before the PS3 launched. The developers took Sony to task about the PS3 design. A very fast powerful (7) core CPU tied to a small data pipeline. The developers said it wouldn't work, but Sony said it would if you do it their way. PS3 Madden runs at 30FPS and Xbox 360 Madden runs at 60FPS maybe a result.

Xbox 360 with its 3 core CPU is easy. Microsoft produced a strong developer kit. Moving from PC to Xbox 360 is supposed to be easy. Xbox 360 launched a year early and established a large volume of high quality games. By the time PS3 shipped developers were already working on 3rd generation Xbox 360 titles. Xbox 360 has become the dominant development platform because of this. EA announced last year that Xbox 360 was their lead development platform. This also means the PS3 power is not used. PS3 has lost most of the exclusives that made Playstation special. Sales of Xbox 360 games are significantly higher than PS3 which will continue the trend. Game developers last year scrambled to develop Wii games as it dominates hardware sales, but originally developers planned to skip Nintendo again. Nintendo continues to have the best games on Nintendo game consoles. Wii is also supposed to be easy to program.

We will see if HD DVD gets "stomped" by the end of the year. But we will know better even if the worst comes true. I will use my HD-A2 for years to come. The best $99 DVD (HD DVD) player I could have purchased. I just can't see $149 HD DVD players not selling at Walmart. "Um, excuse me can you point me to the $399 Blu-Ray players?" Can you see it? Is there a recession coming here in the USA? I better buy an expensive HD movie player.

Don't give up the ship just yet. I intend to buy some HD DVD movies this year and rent some more from Netflix. I have Comcast HD On Demand and Xbox 360 Live! for even more. I am certainly not going to run crying and buying a new Sony Blu-Ray player this year.

One of my fears is that there will no longer be casual HD DVD outlets. Amazon, sure as long as there are discs available. But, for example Best Buy...the one I was in 2 days ago has already shrunk their HD DVD space to about 5 feet. BR - about 20 feet. If this is where the retailers go...people will not even know HD DVD is there, and buy BR players or...if the money is not there, upconverting SD players.

Funny, arguably the best of those are HD DVD players.