A Battle Won, War In Question...Blu-ray vs. HD DVD

[Dale]

The following is drawn wholly from a HD-HDTV public relations spin article about the raging high definition pre-recorded format war. The HD DVD camp was recently stung by a PR coup when Blockbuster popped up with a boldly worded press release saying that they will be carrying the Blu-ray format exclusively in a significant number (1450) of their better located stores. HD DVD advocates say that there is far more to the story than first meets the eye. The war between the two HDTV DVD formats, they claim, is far from won (as the Blu-ray advocates claimed immediately following the Blockbuster announcement). You, as always, are the final judge of which direction the disks are truly spinning.

_Dale

Blockbuster Choice of Blu-ray has Little Impact on Blue Format War

Austin, TX (July 2, 2007) – Blockbuster’s recent announcement that 1450 of its stores would exclusively carry Blu-ray Disc titles as their high-definition offering, has been noted by some as a potential turning point in the battle between the two formats. However, the development may be considerably less significant than it appears on its surface, in affecting a format war that is arguably still a year away from crowning a victor.

Paul Erickson, market analyst with IMS Research, feels...

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[aaronstout]

I agree that the war is far from "over", but I still predict that Blu-ray will win, or there will be no "winner"...

AaronS

[bhall1602]

I think Blu-Ray continues to have an advantage because it is the choice of Disney. As betamax taught us, just having the best specs is not enough to win a format war. Since there are players that can use both formats, in the end, these factors will have an impact:

-- Most new titles.

-- The most titles that people are likely to re-buy. Find out what LORD OF THE RINGS and STAR WARS will be in, and there's a clue.
Titles that sold well in VHS AND DVD would be a good predictor, too.

-- The format favored by porn. If a clear leader emerges in the world of porn, there's your odds-on fave for the rest of the world.

-- A wild card factor -- which one is easier to spell and say? With fewer syllables and nothing that sounds like stuttering (try saying HD-DVD five times fast), I give the edge to Blu-Ray on that one, if only by a nose.

-- Something even weirder and more obscure that I can't think of.

[Shane]

Interesting observations.

But I've always maintained that there will be no "winner".

Each "camp" is so far invested in their respective format that there is no turning back. They each have enough players and titles out on the market to support themselves regardless of what the other format does. They will keep duking it out and declaring themselves "winner" until something comes along to replace them, quite likely video download. I'm not saying that's going to be this year, or even in the next 3 years ... but I think that's the only technology that has enough added value to push high-def packaged media (i.e. HD DVD & Blu-ray) out of the way.

Having said that, here is my take on the pro's/con's of each. And remember, the "average consumer" will decide which way this one goes, not we enthusiasts:

- The Name: HD DVD gets my vote here. Rather than a pronunciation hindrance as you suggest, I believe this is one of their greatest strengths. The average consumer knows exactly what "HD DVD" is without doing a Google search.

- The Titles: This is highly subjective. I've seen "must-have" titles from both sides, so I'll call this one a draw for my part. Regarding the two you mentioned, Star Wars does "lean" toward being a Blu-ray release (even though Lucasfilm has not announced officially which way they will go), since they are in bed with Fox as a distribution partner, but Lord of the Rings is from New Line Cinema (part of Time Warner), so this will likely be a dual-format release.

- The Tech: Blu-ray definitely gets this category ... today, but HD DVD is catching up. Will it be enough? I don't think the "average consumer" will make their decision based on the technology.

- The Manufacturers: Again, Blu-ray. The additional manufacturers seem to be helping keep the technological features on the cutting edge, but even with more competition within it's own format, they can't seem to keep up with HD DVD on pricing. Hopefully by this fall.

- The Price: Duh, HD DVD. This is the single most important factor in "average consumer" adoption. If Blu-ray is not at price parity with HD DVD by this holiday season, it could take a HUGE swing the way of HD DVD. BTW, expect $199 players this fall from the HD DVD side (not necessarily Toshiba units, wink-wink nudge-nudge).

Just a few quick, un-researched observations and opinions.

- Shane

[allargon]

Shane, I disagree with you on the tech part.

Blu-Ray is only advantageous technology wise on the computer because it holds up to 50GB (dual-layer) rather than 30GB (DL HD DVD).

I'm format neutral. However, I'm annoyed that the set-top Blu-Ray players and discs which are supposed to be superior lack interactivity and are unupgradable to the newer Java standard.

[Shane]

Capacity is not just an advantage on the PC side. It also allows for more content on the disc, more bonus features (yes, those sell discs), better audio, etc.

Blu-ray has better throughput (Mbps) as well, allowing for higher bitrates.

Blu-ray has additional encryption options in BD+ also, which may become useful from "Hollywood's" view if AACS keeps having problems.

And given the physical makeup of the disc, Bluray is more resistant to scratching than HD DVD.

Blu-ray has had 24 frame output and 1080p longer than HD DVD, and until last week was all alone in its 24 frame capability.

I will agree that HD DVD made the right decision requiring internet connectivity as part of the standard, vs Blu-ray making it optional ... but that will not have an immediate advantage.

For the record, I am an HD DVD owner.

Enjoy,

- Shane

[andrewleblanccox]

I own both players and have a substantial investment in the
discs. HD discs can be imported from Europe and play in US players.
For example, "The Graduate" is available in the UK and Germany. I don't
think classic films are a priority with either camp in domestic pressiongs. The last Harry Potter film is also out in most of Western Europe on HD.
What's holding it up here, with the latest film coming out this summer?
Toshiba just sent me a free firmware update disc. I was hoping it would
improve the response time of the controls on the remote, but that hasn't
been the case. I often wonder if all the buttons are just for show! Changing
audio tracks, subtitles, etc., is a real challenge with Toshiba!

On the other hand, the Sony Blu-Ray machine is much more responsive
to its remote controls. There is a type of region encoding, so European
discs may or may not play here, depending on content. Titles available
on both formats are often several dollars cheaper on Blu-Ray.

It baffles me why such classics, which beg to have high definition
release, are not forthcoming: i.e. "Dr. Zhivago" or "Lawrence Of Arabia"
How about a Blu-Ray box of the 20th Century Fox Rodgers & Hammerstein
musicals? They have yet to show up in HD on pay tv.

So many of the releases in both formats are no-brainers and films
which I would never look at in the first place, let alone pay for in any
format!

[whatchel1]

I don't get where you believe that the BR disc is less apt to be damaged than the HD-DVD. The info on the BR is much closer to the surface and has a thin blue coating that I think will not be as the thick coating on the HD DVD. I presonally hope that Sony bites it again. They have this way of trying to force people into using their product especially in the broadcast industry. If they didn't learn the lesson of convenience of use and features from the beta days they will most likely lose out again. As far as the size of disc 30 vs 50 I'm not sure that it will make that much difference. The bonus features IMHO are better if they are on a 2nd disc anyway. It makes for a less cluttered menu set up on the main disc. Right now the porn industry has not gone one way or the other although it looks like they will have to go with HD DVD. This is due to the fact that Disney went with BR disc. It is my understanding that Disney has pushed a clause in it's contract that it would not allow it's product to be put out on a the product that allows pron to be sold on the format. So if like in the past the deciding factor is porn then HD DVD will win. It also PO's me that the BR people are sticking us with more of the DRM crap that screws everyone when they want to archive their own purchases. DRM is something that is really going to hurt all of us and should be dumped. Give people the product at the right price and they won't feel the need for piracy of the product. When they get the prices of the HD disc down to the pricing of standard DVD's and that's when we will start seeing who will win this format war. Get recorders out for the public to use at a reasonable price will also be a major deciding factor too.

[Shane]

I didn't say less resistant to damage (i.e. data layer), I said less resistant to scratching. The coating on a Blu-ray disc is much more durable than that of HD DVD. It had to be for the very reasons you describe.

- S

[jhecondevsys]

Hopefully, the various high definition DVD manufacturers read your blog, because to this "average consumer" who has been waiting since October, 2006 to buy one or the other formats...I WON"T buy either until something definitive is decided. Count me as one of the "unwashed masses"...but there's millions of us just waiting...and waiting...and...