HDTV Almanac - The Big Three Networks

[alfredpoor]

Everything seems to come in threes. We had the Big Three Automakers in Detroit. There were those little pigs. And then there were the major television networks: Netflix, Amazon, and Google.
Wait a minute; what happened to ABC, CBS, and NBC?
From where I sit, that is ancient history. The traditional networks are dead men walking, and [...]

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[videograbber]

> And then there were the major television networks: Netflix, Amazon, and Google. Wait a minute; what happened to ABC, CBS, and NBC? From where I sit, that is ancient history. The traditional networks are dead men walking, and just don’t know it. <

Wow. That's quite a leap. Usually I can't find too much to fault in your commentaries, Alfred, but you're way off base with this one, IMO. Why do I say that? Because content is king. And your new, so called "big 3" haven't got any. How much content do I watch each week from the "dead men walking"? About 30 hours. How much from your trio? Zero.

Why do you think the big whoop-de-do launch of Google TV fell flat on it's face? And the hardware products got withdrawn or flushed at fire-sale prices? No content. Sure, I can see that your trio is making the very first tentative steps in that direction (developing their own content). I'm sure that will continue, and even expand. But they've got a long way to go. Much farther to go in fact, than the "dead men".

All the current networks need is to come up with new distribution mechanisms, while not crapping on their current broadcasters. I.e., by involving them and incorporating them into their distribution plans. I think that will be far more easily accomplished. (Just as an example, they have the bandwidth to establish streaming subcarriers themselves to encrypted monetized content, that already reaches millions of viewers.) And they have the content production in the bag already. Of course, they have inertia and a lot of old-school thinking working against them, but that can change. And at some point it will have to.

OTOH, maybe I'm just locked in an old mind-set, and you're right after all.

[alfredpoor]

Thanks for calling me out on this one, videograbber; I think you read my post exactly as I intended it. Yes, I make a huge leap from today's reality in my analysis, and of course I'm not really saying that ABC, CBS, and NBC will disappear before the year's end. My point is that they know exactly how to develop and deliver content "the old school way" and that they have clearly demonstrated that they are pretty clueless and ill-equipped for the new world of TV 2.0 or whatever we're going to call it.

Old school success was about attracting content from independent sources and making a market for it. New success will depend on creating galaxy-sized Big Data collections of metadata about billions (trillions?) of minutes of content that is available from lots of different sources, including directly from those independent sources that used to depend on the Big Three to be the gatekeepers and provide an audience. The New Big Three will be able to enable the audience to find what they want, when they want it.

If you look at the world today, nothing has really changed that much. If you look at the trajectory of everything in consumer electronics, however, I think you'll find that my analysis has merit. I don't pretend to know that I'm right, but I do believe that I've painted a picture of a more-than-plausible future that is probably closer than we think. There are many strong forces in play that could speed us toward a tipping point. But if I can get people to disagree and engage on the issue, then I still believe that I've succeeded. So thanks for sharing your view.

Alfred
HDTV Almanac

[alfredpoor]

Related to this discussion, I thought you might be interested to see this:

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=o8uqg7bab&v=001uhMSa17EQAeOIqpw0yKcO-KK5Gm0scI2Ew8cqbmzbXfM7E2GFskqPlBJjIUJS1SPyux-mc46-XPaNzIl0KJosVCnVkvJcYmIHr-KpyMt3yJCH-aKAyT_uqUcIkZH6o0xBoCCjFxl9b1ixMpgbcjfq-85AHJbXGEtEV4A6mbVhz8BdUADJyC-T3ODixw_Jbyk

One of my favorite sayings is "Great minds think alike, and fools seldom differ." Take your pick. <g>

Alfred
HDTV Almanac

[alfredpoor]

My apologies for the cryptic post and the long URL. I was rushed when I posted it. The link is to a Constant Contact newsletter from The Diffusion Group (TDG) which is an excellent market analysis firm that tracks television and related markets. This newsletter in particular has a piece titled "5 Questions with Colin Dixon" who is a Senior Partner with the company. He discusses many of the same points that we've covered in this thread. Here's one quote of particular interest:

New giants in entertainment delivery and creation are beginning to establish themselves online - just look at Netflix. And despite their rhetoric, they are on a headlong collision course with traditional providers. The old guard is beginning to change, but the key question is whether they can turn the ship fast enough to out-maneuver the OTT companies.

So I may be way off base in my analysis, but it looks as though I'm not alone out there. <g>

Alfred

[alfredpoor]

Okay, now I've learned that some (most?) people don't see the newsletter when they follow the link. I've posted a PDF of the complete page here: http://www.hdtvprofessor.com/HDTVAlmana ... nDixon.pdf . I apologize for any inconvenience or confusion.

Alfred

[videograbber]

'now I've learned that some (most?) people don't see the newsletter when they follow the link.'

That's weird. I never had any problem it it, in any incarnation.

[alfredpoor]

Thanks for letting me know that, videographer. I don't know what the problem was, but this should cover all the possibilities.

Alfred