HDTV Expert - 3D: Expect a Long Slog

[720pete]

It took nearly seven years before HDTV really took off. So how can we expect 3D to launch in less time?

[url=http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/columns/2010/08/hdtv-expert-3d-expect-a-long-slog.php]Read Column[/url]

[alfredpoor]

Pete, you draw an interesting analogy between the adoption of HDTV and the adoption of 3DTV. For the most part, I agree with your points. Content is a major factor, and will play an important part in the growth of 3D.

Currently, there are a limited number of 3DTV sets for sale, and they’re not as cheap as 2D sets.

This is true, but this is also where I think that the wheels fall off your analysis. This may be true today, but it won't be true tomorrow. Manufacturers are still charging a premium for 3D-capable sets (as they used to do for 120 Hz sets). But the marginal cost of 3D support is rapidly approaching zero as the details get integrated into the existing controllers (just as it has for 120 Hz). And the fierce competition in this segment will drive the excess profit out of 3DTV pricing in about two years (just as it has for 120 Hz).

So I think that 120 Hz is the better analogy, and expect that 3D support will be standard for all but the lowest-priced entry level products in about two years. True, this won't accelerate the TV replacement cycle until there is a compelling amount of content available, but it will cause the installed base to grow faster than I think you estimate.

But then again, I've been wrong before. <g>

Alfred

Alfred Poor
HDTV Almanac

[ccclvib]

Are we forgetting (or ignoring) the fact a whole lot of HDTV sets were purchased because of the conversion to digital? The fact the new TV sets were (incidentally?) capable of High Definition output was only part of the story. Admittedly, those viewers who have either cable or satellite service didn't have to do anything about the digital conversion (and, for all I know that may be a majority of the viewing public), but all those folks - me included - who get a least a portion of their TV signal from an antenna were forced to either purchase a new set or purchase a D/A converter.

There's nothing out there I know of that will make a portion of the public purchase a 3D television set - other than just wanting to. We'll see how that works.

[alfredpoor]

Actually, at the time of the digital conversion, less than 25 percent of U.S. households relied solely on over-the-air transmissions for their television content. Many of the households in that segment could not afford a new CRT television, let alone a flat panel. If the digital conversion drove the HDTV sales, that doesn't explain the large portion of the other 75 percent who bought them. The fact that CRT televisions all but disappeared from the market was at least as big a factor, and probably bigger.

And that's what will drive the adoption of 3DTV in this country. When non-3D-capable sets disappear from the shelves (as the price differential drops to near zero), people will have no choice but to get 3D support along with the other features that they want. It happened with mono vs. stereo FM, black and white vs. color CRT TV, 8-track vs. cassette, cassette vs. CD, and with VHS vs. DVD, and it's happening now with 60 Hz vs. 120 Hz LCD flat panel TVs.

Alfred

[Rodolfo]

Many had equated the effort of the HDTV implementation to the 3D effort now, including CEA’s Shapiro himself, however, when analyzing carefully the details of each effort there are many factors that actually make them very different, and show that 3D, as a feature, is actually having an easier technological ride over an implemented HDTV technology, a benefit that HDTV did not have when having to break a hard digital ground from analog:

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/articles/20 ... part-1.php

Regarding pricing, HDTVs that have 3D capability are actually not much more expensive than similar size sets that do not have the 3D feature. Is it worth paying for that difference just for the added 3D feature? Each consumer should decide that, not journalism, the same way additional features like Skype, wireless network connectivity, Internet, LED backlight, faster refresh rates, were supposed to be, a customer decision.

With time, like it happened with the other features, the 3D price difference will be negligible, and eventually, as it happened almost a decade ago with tuner-less HD monitors compared with integrated HDTVs having ATSC tuners mandated by the FCC in 2002, there will be no way for a consumer to compare because HDTVs on some sizes will not be manufactured without 3D capabilities, to simplify inventory, distribution, and retail space to mention a few:

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/articles/20 ... nd-you.php

I view 3D as “just one more feature” to offer some casual viewing for which one has to use glasses, and tolerate a drop, considerable in many cases, of image quality and brightness for the sake of depth. 3D is not a technology replacement for people to feel they have to run and change their current sets to see everything in 3D with on-the-fly 2D-to-3D conversions, which in most cases discourage 3D adoption because of their substandard quality.

If the 3D feature in the TV is worth the cost of a new TV and the glasses (hundreds of $ for a family) some may find that now is a good opportunity to add or replace some sets at home before they need to be replaced, but again, 3D should be judged just as an added feature that is good to have for well produced content to be experienced in 3D at home.

Many may prefer to ignore the 3D feature, like they ignored LED backlight, Internet connectivity, and the others, but that does NOT mean 3D is going down, it means it is evolving as any other add-on feature, which will be hard to be ignored by many consumers if offered eventually at no additional cost, especially if the 2D functionality has improved as well.

Regarding the mentioned 25% of over-the-air viewers on the DTV transition, they were actually 13%, 15 million out of 112.8 million households (Oct 08 numbers). Check the paragraphs of “Over-The-Air Reception - How Large is the Group?”:

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/articles/20 ... d_help.php




Best Regards,

Rodolfo La Maestra