There was a time when DVDs enjoyed the fastest new technology adoption of all time. The transition from the clumsy, snowy VHS tapes to the sleek little polycarbonate discs was driven by the fact that the digital image looked terrific even on standard definition picture tube televisions. And they look even better on flat panel [...]
Read Column
HDTV Almanac - DVD and Blu-Ray: Exit Slowly, Stage Left
-
alfredpoor
- Major Contributor
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 9:27 am
-
Rodolfo
- Author
- Posts: 755
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:46 pm
- Location: Lansdowne VA
Exit slowly?
Alfred, your link to Pete’s article is actually pointing to an unrelated Display Search report.
I read Pete’s original column early in May, and the data he used for it, and shared with him my disagreement with the way numbers were used to reach premature unsupported conclusions.
Pete’s column actually shows that Blu-ray was reported as growing, and many other reports showed Blu-ray growing at a pace that is even faster than DVD (which was known as the format with the fastest growth in terms of consumer adoption), and we all know that DVD is being replaced by Blu-ray, so it is not surprise that DVD numbers are down.
His column also showed a growth of internet video consumtion but it cannot be concluded that one is replacing the other, both methods of consumption will continue because they serve different purposes, regardless of their differences in image and sound quality.
As I said many times, streaming is starting to be subjected to the caps and extra costs of broadband connections and we have not seen how far that would go yet, but that would certainly have the potential to slow the growth and discourage those that want to cut the cord or stop consuming pre-recorded media, and Netflix is already complaining about that, while the FCC chairman defended the need for that competition.
What it called my attention was that even when the information from the report he used in the column shows a growth of Blu-ray as pre-recorded media he ends his column otherwise, such as looking for a premature kill, a kill of the best quality pre-recorded format in the hands of consumers since video was invented.
Here are some excerpts from his column:
“..kiosk DVD & Blu-ray rentals were up 30%...”
“The Blu-ray format saw a decent boost with consumer spending on Blu-ray discs up 23 % Y-Y overall.... catalog (movie) sales of Blu-ray discs jumped 27%. TV programs on Blu-ray increased 54%...”.
There should be more balance in evaluating trends that not necessarily interact proportionally with each other but rather coexist in parallel, as I said, for different purposes, like Mr. Parsons from the Blu-ray Association also declared recently.
From another angle, on another of your columns a few days ago you were surprised (positively I assume) that viewers with broadband connections were viewing 1.6 hrs per week. If I remember correctly other reports indicate that viewers watch around 35 hrs a week in total. In other words streaming would then account for less than 5% of the weekly viewing, which is hardly a sign of replacing any format, pre-recorded or distributed.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra
I read Pete’s original column early in May, and the data he used for it, and shared with him my disagreement with the way numbers were used to reach premature unsupported conclusions.
Pete’s column actually shows that Blu-ray was reported as growing, and many other reports showed Blu-ray growing at a pace that is even faster than DVD (which was known as the format with the fastest growth in terms of consumer adoption), and we all know that DVD is being replaced by Blu-ray, so it is not surprise that DVD numbers are down.
His column also showed a growth of internet video consumtion but it cannot be concluded that one is replacing the other, both methods of consumption will continue because they serve different purposes, regardless of their differences in image and sound quality.
As I said many times, streaming is starting to be subjected to the caps and extra costs of broadband connections and we have not seen how far that would go yet, but that would certainly have the potential to slow the growth and discourage those that want to cut the cord or stop consuming pre-recorded media, and Netflix is already complaining about that, while the FCC chairman defended the need for that competition.
What it called my attention was that even when the information from the report he used in the column shows a growth of Blu-ray as pre-recorded media he ends his column otherwise, such as looking for a premature kill, a kill of the best quality pre-recorded format in the hands of consumers since video was invented.
Here are some excerpts from his column:
“..kiosk DVD & Blu-ray rentals were up 30%...”
“The Blu-ray format saw a decent boost with consumer spending on Blu-ray discs up 23 % Y-Y overall.... catalog (movie) sales of Blu-ray discs jumped 27%. TV programs on Blu-ray increased 54%...”.
There should be more balance in evaluating trends that not necessarily interact proportionally with each other but rather coexist in parallel, as I said, for different purposes, like Mr. Parsons from the Blu-ray Association also declared recently.
From another angle, on another of your columns a few days ago you were surprised (positively I assume) that viewers with broadband connections were viewing 1.6 hrs per week. If I remember correctly other reports indicate that viewers watch around 35 hrs a week in total. In other words streaming would then account for less than 5% of the weekly viewing, which is hardly a sign of replacing any format, pre-recorded or distributed.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra
-
videograbber
- Major Contributor
- Posts: 146
- Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:10 am
Re: HDTV Almanac - DVD and Blu-Ray: Exit Slowly, Stage Left
I'd like to express my agreement with all the points that Rodolfo made, which I think were extremely well taken.
For some reason, there seems to be a tendency to want to take the position that 'there can be only ONE ring, and one ring will rule them all'. I disagree with this attitude, and also the unbalanced reporting that focuses on negative stats to the exclusion of positive ones, simply because they support the conclusion the author wants to make. Blu-ray can continue to not only survive but thrive, even as some forms of streaming continue to increase. It's not necessarily a zero-sum game, as some would like us to believe. I don't see either DVDs or Blu-rays disappearing any time soon, in spite of attempts by the pundits to convince us of that.
As far as I'm concerned, having more options is a good thing. Especially when one of those options happens to be the best possible quality that has ever been made available to consumers.
For some reason, there seems to be a tendency to want to take the position that 'there can be only ONE ring, and one ring will rule them all'. I disagree with this attitude, and also the unbalanced reporting that focuses on negative stats to the exclusion of positive ones, simply because they support the conclusion the author wants to make. Blu-ray can continue to not only survive but thrive, even as some forms of streaming continue to increase. It's not necessarily a zero-sum game, as some would like us to believe. I don't see either DVDs or Blu-rays disappearing any time soon, in spite of attempts by the pundits to convince us of that.
As far as I'm concerned, having more options is a good thing. Especially when one of those options happens to be the best possible quality that has ever been made available to consumers.
-
jordanm
- Major Contributor
- Posts: 163
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 9:17 pm
- Location: Arizona
Re: HDTV Almanac - DVD and Blu-Ray: Exit Slowly, Stage Left
Last night, due to the requests of guests, we streamed the new #10 episode of Game of Thrones on HBOGo from HBO E before it got to HBO W.
All I'll say is with a 21 MBPS Internet cable connection, it was awful.
I'll stick to BD disk (or a conversion of one) stored on media, any time, rather than stream.
All I'll say is with a 21 MBPS Internet cable connection, it was awful.
I'll stick to BD disk (or a conversion of one) stored on media, any time, rather than stream.
-
alfredpoor
- Major Contributor
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 9:27 am
Re: HDTV Almanac - DVD and Blu-Ray: Exit Slowly, Stage Left
Thanks for pointing out the busted link, Rodolfo. I've asked that it be corrected.
Videograbber, I'm not saying that there has to be One Ring to Rule Them All, but the consumers do tend to end up favoring one technology over another. You can still buy vinyl records and I certainly agree that the technology has some advantages over CDs and MP3s, but you can't say that they are the dominant technology in the music industry. All I'm saying in this post is that I believe that the average consumer is going to choose to get his or her video content from a source other than plastic discs. I'm not saying that you or Jordan M or Rodolofo, personally, will prefer that solution, or that you will cease to buy BD if you can get them. But if the market was made up just of people like you who appreciate -- and are willing to pay for -- better quality video performance, then Pioneer would still be making televisions.
Alfred
Videograbber, I'm not saying that there has to be One Ring to Rule Them All, but the consumers do tend to end up favoring one technology over another. You can still buy vinyl records and I certainly agree that the technology has some advantages over CDs and MP3s, but you can't say that they are the dominant technology in the music industry. All I'm saying in this post is that I believe that the average consumer is going to choose to get his or her video content from a source other than plastic discs. I'm not saying that you or Jordan M or Rodolofo, personally, will prefer that solution, or that you will cease to buy BD if you can get them. But if the market was made up just of people like you who appreciate -- and are willing to pay for -- better quality video performance, then Pioneer would still be making televisions.
Alfred
-
720pete
- Major Contributor
- Posts: 133
- Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 12:19 am
Re: HDTV Almanac - DVD and Blu-Ray: Exit Slowly, Stage Left
The problem with Digital Entertainment Group (DEG) quarterly reports and other research is that they often 'spin' the numbers without doing a complete analysis. And the real trends are buried somewhere else in the report, or they jump to unsupportable conclusions. Reference their claim last year that, because the average number of home with 3D TVs had 2.5 pairs of glasses, 3D TV viewing was on the rise. Nowhere did their report mention that the typical 3DTV purchase came with two free pairs of glasses. To assume increased 3D TV viewing based on that number alone without additional research and verification is ludicrous, and would earn a big fat 'F' from a professor in any Statistics course.
While it is true that, percentage wise, Blu-ray disc sales are increasing, I'm more interested in the actual numbers; not percentages. Blu-ray disc sales could double in a year (a 100% increase sure sounds good) but if the actual volume is a small percentage of DVD sales, then that's not so good. And that is exactly what has happened with Blu-ray: Sales are indeed on the rise, but even DEG has admitted that BD sales volume increases are not enough to offset a decline in DVD sales, and that the overall packaged media sales and rental category is in decline to the tune of -25% Y-Y - and has been in steady decline even before the Blu-ray and HD-DVD wars was settled.
As for kiosk rentals - well, who wouldn't want to rent Blu-ray discs for $1.50 or $2 per night? But that's not where Hollywood wants prices to be.
If you need more proof of the decline in importance of packaged media sales, go to Best Buy and see for yourself just how much smaller their Blu-ray and DVD sales area has become over the past two years. BB has even stated that they will be placing less emphasis on disc sales and more on streaming, although they can't seem to do anything right these days. Target and Wal-Mart have similarly reduced the square footage in their stores devoted to DVD and BD sales. (Wal-Mart owns Vudu and is emphasizing that service instead.)
Adams Media Research is probably the preeminent research firm tracking DVD and Blu-ray sales and rentals, and they have also identified an accelerating, declining trend in packaged optical media rentals that started back in 2005. 'Impulse' streaming is no doubt part of it; but another reason is that consumers have decided they don't need to 'own' the physical media as long as it is readily accessible for viewing (video-on-demand, streaming). Many of us still have movies we bought several years ago, or got as birthday or holiday gifts, that are still sitting on the shelves in their original shrink wrap. I watch a lot of old movies in HD on Turner Classic Movies - no need to buy any of them.
The problem that Hollywood has is this: It's clear that the majority of TV homes like streaming. They may not always be happy with the reliability of the streamed connection, but there is an economic decision (weighing price, convenience, and quality) that is being made on a daily basis - and price + convenience are winning out. Quality is obviously not part of the equation, because it affects convenience. If quality were so important, Blu-ray sales and rentals would have completely offset the decline in DVD sales and rentals. But they haven't.
From my perspective, Blu-ray is late to the game as the winds of media delivery are shifting. Yes, streaming quality can be erratic. But it can also be surprisingly good. I watched "The Help" and "Bridesmaids" streaming as MPEG4 AVC over a Vudu connection at 6 - 8 Mb/s and both movies looked every bit as good as a Blu-ray disc on my Panasonic 42-inch 1080p plasma. The reliability of the connection was decent - only the last 10 minutes of "Bridesmaids' got hung up, and I had to start the streaming again - so you can see the potential is there. Broadband speeds need to pick up to the levels found in Korea and Japan (> 20 Mb/s sustained) for this delivery system to work, though. But if speeds get that fast, then cable broadband providers will probably jettison TV channel packages to make more frequencies available for streaming and become like electric companies, offered 'metered' broadband (and they will, trust me).
Alfred makes an excellent point with regards to Pioneer. That company ignored at their peril the market trend data for plasma sales and retail pricing, and continued to pursue an unprofitable, small 'high end' market to sell expensive plasma TVs when common sense dictated a more practical strategy. They ignored the warnings and eventually had to stop plasma TV production altogether when the red ink got out of control.
The 'high end' will always be a small percentage of the market, and as long as servicing it doesn't disrupt the overall sales and marketing model, things are great. But it is difficult for companies to survive catering only to this group. Blu-ray disc and player prices have only come down to 'reasonable' mass-market levels in the past year, i.e. replacing an upscaling DVD player 1-to-1. But that's not fast enough for consumers, who are always looking for something more convenient and cheaper. For better or worse; streaming is 'it' for now.
Don't let your high-end tastes blind you to market trends. Enjoy your Blu-ray movies and 3D TVs, and brag about their well-deserved superiority to streaming. But don't assume the highest quality products and solutions always win in the marketplace. If that were true, Pioneer would still be in business, plasma TV manufacturing wouldn't be on the ropes, D-VHS wouldn't have died as quickly as it did, LCD TVs would be a small percentage of all TV sales, Samsung would still be selling the $12,0000 Joe Kane DLP projector, and Netflix streaming would be stillborn.
The marketplace is funny that way.
While it is true that, percentage wise, Blu-ray disc sales are increasing, I'm more interested in the actual numbers; not percentages. Blu-ray disc sales could double in a year (a 100% increase sure sounds good) but if the actual volume is a small percentage of DVD sales, then that's not so good. And that is exactly what has happened with Blu-ray: Sales are indeed on the rise, but even DEG has admitted that BD sales volume increases are not enough to offset a decline in DVD sales, and that the overall packaged media sales and rental category is in decline to the tune of -25% Y-Y - and has been in steady decline even before the Blu-ray and HD-DVD wars was settled.
As for kiosk rentals - well, who wouldn't want to rent Blu-ray discs for $1.50 or $2 per night? But that's not where Hollywood wants prices to be.
If you need more proof of the decline in importance of packaged media sales, go to Best Buy and see for yourself just how much smaller their Blu-ray and DVD sales area has become over the past two years. BB has even stated that they will be placing less emphasis on disc sales and more on streaming, although they can't seem to do anything right these days. Target and Wal-Mart have similarly reduced the square footage in their stores devoted to DVD and BD sales. (Wal-Mart owns Vudu and is emphasizing that service instead.)
Adams Media Research is probably the preeminent research firm tracking DVD and Blu-ray sales and rentals, and they have also identified an accelerating, declining trend in packaged optical media rentals that started back in 2005. 'Impulse' streaming is no doubt part of it; but another reason is that consumers have decided they don't need to 'own' the physical media as long as it is readily accessible for viewing (video-on-demand, streaming). Many of us still have movies we bought several years ago, or got as birthday or holiday gifts, that are still sitting on the shelves in their original shrink wrap. I watch a lot of old movies in HD on Turner Classic Movies - no need to buy any of them.
The problem that Hollywood has is this: It's clear that the majority of TV homes like streaming. They may not always be happy with the reliability of the streamed connection, but there is an economic decision (weighing price, convenience, and quality) that is being made on a daily basis - and price + convenience are winning out. Quality is obviously not part of the equation, because it affects convenience. If quality were so important, Blu-ray sales and rentals would have completely offset the decline in DVD sales and rentals. But they haven't.
From my perspective, Blu-ray is late to the game as the winds of media delivery are shifting. Yes, streaming quality can be erratic. But it can also be surprisingly good. I watched "The Help" and "Bridesmaids" streaming as MPEG4 AVC over a Vudu connection at 6 - 8 Mb/s and both movies looked every bit as good as a Blu-ray disc on my Panasonic 42-inch 1080p plasma. The reliability of the connection was decent - only the last 10 minutes of "Bridesmaids' got hung up, and I had to start the streaming again - so you can see the potential is there. Broadband speeds need to pick up to the levels found in Korea and Japan (> 20 Mb/s sustained) for this delivery system to work, though. But if speeds get that fast, then cable broadband providers will probably jettison TV channel packages to make more frequencies available for streaming and become like electric companies, offered 'metered' broadband (and they will, trust me).
Alfred makes an excellent point with regards to Pioneer. That company ignored at their peril the market trend data for plasma sales and retail pricing, and continued to pursue an unprofitable, small 'high end' market to sell expensive plasma TVs when common sense dictated a more practical strategy. They ignored the warnings and eventually had to stop plasma TV production altogether when the red ink got out of control.
The 'high end' will always be a small percentage of the market, and as long as servicing it doesn't disrupt the overall sales and marketing model, things are great. But it is difficult for companies to survive catering only to this group. Blu-ray disc and player prices have only come down to 'reasonable' mass-market levels in the past year, i.e. replacing an upscaling DVD player 1-to-1. But that's not fast enough for consumers, who are always looking for something more convenient and cheaper. For better or worse; streaming is 'it' for now.
Don't let your high-end tastes blind you to market trends. Enjoy your Blu-ray movies and 3D TVs, and brag about their well-deserved superiority to streaming. But don't assume the highest quality products and solutions always win in the marketplace. If that were true, Pioneer would still be in business, plasma TV manufacturing wouldn't be on the ropes, D-VHS wouldn't have died as quickly as it did, LCD TVs would be a small percentage of all TV sales, Samsung would still be selling the $12,0000 Joe Kane DLP projector, and Netflix streaming would be stillborn.
The marketplace is funny that way.
-
Rodolfo
- Author
- Posts: 755
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:46 pm
- Location: Lansdowne VA
Choice should be respected without impossing views
Pete, it is interesting you are saying this from the research company:
“The problem with Digital Entertainment Group (DEG) quarterly reports and other research is that they often 'spin' the numbers without doing a complete analysis. And the real trends are buried somewhere else in the report, or they jump to unsupportable conclusions..”
Quite frankly I was talking about “your” column and the way “you” used their stats to still making a planned point, apparently looking for a premature kill. Quality has been always an easy kill when looking at sales and numbers, especially by those that are satisfied buffering streaming on a 42” panel.
Regarding Pioneer Elite, it was, and still is today, “the” quality to beat, I installed five 60-inchers in the few weeks before they were discontinued to people that appreciated quality, my wife did not know how to evaluate a Kuro, she said “I already have a large Pioneer Elite”, I still gave her a new Kuro, when I turned on the Kuro her jaw dropped to the floor, and there is not one day that she does not thank me for that quality, she now knows how to differentiate quality.
Sharp is trying the same, ridding over the prestigious Elite name with their own top of the line LCDs, I told them that their set looks better than other LCDs but it is too expensive for an LCD, a weak technology with lots of baggage behind it. I wish them good luck, but I do not discourage them for pursuing quality, or to introduce an 8K panel with 40% angle-of-view restriction.
Quality equipment and media, in parallel to the stuff the red tag weekend warriors buy, did coexist in many forms for decades, and will still coexist, they have to, maybe not for you, but they will for many that appreciate the beauty of quality regardless of the price, even if it gets discontinued because it sells less volume.
My point was and still is that we disagree with the approach of accommodating stats to fit original column intentions, rather than showing data as it is and provide a balanced opinion of what they may mean individually, or not saying anything.
Because as I said before, this is not an either-or choice situation of quality vs. cheap mass volume products, there will always be a market for both, and you can continue streaming and buffering at your leisure on your 42” panel, while I am playing blu-rays in CinemaScope on an UHDTV 4K projector with my jaw dropping to the floor while waiting for the 4K blu-ray with HEVC.
Do not take me wrong, I am giving you (and all) room for your personal choice, but I do not accept anyone imposing a sided mass view to those that still appreciate quality.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra
“The problem with Digital Entertainment Group (DEG) quarterly reports and other research is that they often 'spin' the numbers without doing a complete analysis. And the real trends are buried somewhere else in the report, or they jump to unsupportable conclusions..”
Quite frankly I was talking about “your” column and the way “you” used their stats to still making a planned point, apparently looking for a premature kill. Quality has been always an easy kill when looking at sales and numbers, especially by those that are satisfied buffering streaming on a 42” panel.
Regarding Pioneer Elite, it was, and still is today, “the” quality to beat, I installed five 60-inchers in the few weeks before they were discontinued to people that appreciated quality, my wife did not know how to evaluate a Kuro, she said “I already have a large Pioneer Elite”, I still gave her a new Kuro, when I turned on the Kuro her jaw dropped to the floor, and there is not one day that she does not thank me for that quality, she now knows how to differentiate quality.
Sharp is trying the same, ridding over the prestigious Elite name with their own top of the line LCDs, I told them that their set looks better than other LCDs but it is too expensive for an LCD, a weak technology with lots of baggage behind it. I wish them good luck, but I do not discourage them for pursuing quality, or to introduce an 8K panel with 40% angle-of-view restriction.
Quality equipment and media, in parallel to the stuff the red tag weekend warriors buy, did coexist in many forms for decades, and will still coexist, they have to, maybe not for you, but they will for many that appreciate the beauty of quality regardless of the price, even if it gets discontinued because it sells less volume.
My point was and still is that we disagree with the approach of accommodating stats to fit original column intentions, rather than showing data as it is and provide a balanced opinion of what they may mean individually, or not saying anything.
Because as I said before, this is not an either-or choice situation of quality vs. cheap mass volume products, there will always be a market for both, and you can continue streaming and buffering at your leisure on your 42” panel, while I am playing blu-rays in CinemaScope on an UHDTV 4K projector with my jaw dropping to the floor while waiting for the 4K blu-ray with HEVC.
Do not take me wrong, I am giving you (and all) room for your personal choice, but I do not accept anyone imposing a sided mass view to those that still appreciate quality.
Best Regards,
Rodolfo La Maestra