HDTV Expert - Is it time to kill the DVD?

[Rodolfo]

I believe that the “kill DVD” idea of the title is overreaching when expressed that way, except for the last line of the column.

I understand and I agree that soon Blu-ray players would be very accessible in price to consumers that usually would buy a DVD player instead, and be benefitted by investing similar dollars on a unit that plays both formats. “Killing DVD players” at that particular point in the future seems reasonable when for equivalent money one can get more.

Another different issue is the concept of “kill the DVD disk”, that is a media issue, and just by looking at possibly 3 or 4 DVD players currently installed on every home (main unit, portables, computer, etc) that could be in the order of 400 million units that would not be able to play a new movie that does not exist any longer as DVD if released only in Blu-ray. Such situation would make the idea of killing DVD (the disk) very unpopular even if no more DVD players would be produced, and even if rentals could still be strong.

Looking back at the niche Laserdisc, when DVD was introduced in 1996 the format took an immediate downhill, but that format had only 2% penetration. DVD is different; DVD was a large success story in consumer electronics penetration “relative to the time it took to do it”. Blu-ray format penetration is comparably larger relative to similar periods.

One possible scenario is that disc manufacturers could start including always a DVD version together with their Blu-ray releases so DVD player owners could still buy new titles they can play as DVD and also be enticed to get a Blu-player for a disc they have purchased already on the set. Only then I could see possible the “kill the DVD disc” idea because it offers a migration path that does not disenfranchise hundreds of millions of legacy DVD players.

The secret there is calculating an attractive price in between DVD and Blu-ray that could be reasonable to DVD owners thinking in a near Blu-ray future, and also reasonable to a studio to take some loss on today’s Blu-ray price with an investing attitude of fast increase of Blu-ray sales from DVD owners migrating to Blu-ray earlier than if let alone.

In other words, DVD as a disc must continue for sale alone or as a part of Blu-ray set, not just for rental. If a studio would produce the disc anyway why not include it with the Blu-ray as a set at an affordable price that would entice consumers to a faster migration path to Blu-ray discs and players without abandoning the legacy DVD players they already have.


Best Regards,

Rodolfo La Maestra

[alfredpoor]

Rodolfo, you make a number of good points, as always.

DVD was a large success story in consumer electronics penetration “relative to the time it took to do it”.

However, consumer electronics remains more or less a zero sum game. Yes, DVD achieved tremendous market penetration in a very short time, but keep in mind that this was at the expense of VHS. I suspect that VHS penetration was close to what DVD enjoys now. Why was DVD able to push it out of the way? Because the technology was better. Personal computers replaced typewriters, audio cassettes replaced 8-track (and were then replaced by CDs), and 3.5-inch floppy disks were replaced by USB drives. In each case, the new technology was better, and the old technology disappeared more or less overnight.

I think that's the lens you need to look through at DVDs. They do a great job, but just as online MP3s have devastated the audio CD market, so might online video take a large chunk of the DVD business. And I suspect sooner than even we optimists might think. (See what I have to say about Google TV in my HDTV Almanac on Monday.)

Alfred
HDTV Almanac

[hharris4earthlink]

Over the years I've been collecting audio tapes, records, film, laser disks, videotapes, DVDs, and Blu-ray disks. This is a particularly sore subject with me because I'm currently moving a house full of these relics and wondering why this is even necessary. We seem to worship objects when all we're really interested in is content.

I think in a very few years all this will change. The era of the objectification of content will end to be replaced with low-cost virtual memory stored in the cloud. The advantages of this idea are many. A fire can't wipe out those movies and photos of the children. No longer would we have to fill our living room with multiple pieces of hardware that serve different standards. In the near future, most people will store information at the highest resolution they can afford, and then turn this into sound and pictures at the best resolution their current home equipment can provide. Your display and sound equipment may go out of date, but the information will always be there for whatever equipment is available at the time.

There should be a universal cloud archiving system that stores information in a way that, baring armageddon, would serve to preserve humankind's works forever, because, to keep going down the road we're on is, frankly, just crazy.

[Rodolfo]

Alfred,

My response was tailored to cover only the subject of the column (kill DVD to move to Blu-ray, both pre-recorded formats). The subject you are bringing (streaming/downloading music and video rather than owning pre-recorded media) is different and requires more depth, and it was already discussed on another column you wrote (although oriented to Blu-ray, not DVD):

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/columns/201 ... player.php

To which I also commented under the “Everyone has an opinion” post.

You mentioned that you did not have a Blu-ray player yet (after 4 years of been introduced), if I would be you I would make every effort to buy a Blu-ray player and discs to appreciate firsthand the difference in video and audio quality compared to streamed media and every other format/distribution system.

I bought the first Sony Blu-ray player in 2006 for $1000, and responding to your comments, I doubt it was subsidized as the PS3 was ($806 parts/manufacturing that sold as $499, page 228); however Toshiba subsidized their first HD-DVD player HD-A1 ($674 of BOM sold for $499, page 254).

Details on 2007 HDTV Technology Review (consumer edition):

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/reports/hdt ... review.php

The future can bring positives and negatives on either front (net neutrality, restricted bandwidth, over-compression, practicality and consumer preference, etc.), and one should not disregard how important collecting media and pursuing uncompromised video/audio quality could be for many consumers, while for others may not be.

In other words, respecting both choices (and explicitly expressing such respect) should be a prerequisite to provide a balanced view of the matter.


Best Regards,

Rodolfo La Maestra