I don't think it's all decided. There are many indicators pointing towards the death of optical, but some others seem not too. Let me elaborate:
I agree. The problem is that we seldom ask ourselves how often we will really watch a movie before we buy it. It's irrational, but it will happen. The question to ask is what will make me buy a download instead of a shiny disc.How many of you reading this bought movies on VHS tapes? When was the last time you watched one? Did any of you buy LaserDisc movies? How's that working out for you?
Short argument: Why am I not convinced the optical disc is on its last leg? Well, let's look at other things that should have been obsolete and that have more reason to be obsolete. Movie theaters, CDs, Books. Yet, they are still around and not on the endangered species list.
Longer discussion
Downloads or streaming will not yet displace the optical disc because they are not yet positioned in a way to really push out optical discs. I believe they will coexist for a while longer.
What drove collectors to drop VHS for Laserdisc and then to DVDs and now Blu-ray is in my opinion the fact that each format provided higher quality or better content above the previous at a similar price point and with increased convenience: There is no reason for me to buy or rent a download version for a movie I already own. On the other hand, I am on my 2nd copy of Predator (VHS, DVD) and I am pondering the $9.99 version on Blu-ray on Amazon.
I'd further venture that owning vs. buying is a purely economic decision. Price, or perhaps buy vs rent price ratio will determine whether we are collectors or renters. At $100 a piece I can't think of 10 titles I would buy. At $5 a piece,I will consider buying Hudson Hawk if it was on Blu-Ray.
Do downloads really beat optical. While we'd all agree that the download offers more convenience, we'd also agree that the optical still reigns in terms of quality.
Granted, as broadband speeds climb, and compression algorithms increase, downloads can get better and better. But also consider that optical media can become a moving target. What if in the same time span we are dealing with 1 inch discs capable of storing 25 movies. Hmm... Now the convenience edge is not that clear because downloads still would cost space and streaming would cost time.
My main problem with downloads and streaming is they that too high a premium is charged for the convenience of it. Let's look at an example: Hurt Locker is $22.99 on Blu-Ray from Amazon (Best Buy $29.99), and $19.99 in HD on ITunes to own. To rent: It's $5.99 from Blockbuster and $4.99 on Itunes. In Standard definition, same price to buy and same price to rent physical or download.
I won't even consider the purchase. No way. On the rental it really depends. It's 9pm Saturday night, I am already in my Pjs and we want to watch a specific movie: download, streaming, PPV, come to Daddy. I am on a plane - bring on the streaming. However, let's say that it's Tuesday afternoon, and I want to load up for the weekend? Well, I'd print out my coupons and drive to Blockbuster.
Consider that downloads and streaming are a lot of hassle too. Check out the rental rules for ITunes: http://www.apple.com/legal/itunes/us/terms.html#SALE
Can't take to another computer.Have 24 hours to watch.
Consider that the average person will find it much easier to pop a disc into a tray and hit play than to somehow get their downloaded show over to their TV and watch it.
Consider that the movie industry and the electronics manufacturers (sometimes the same people) have a lot invested in Blu-Ray and even in DVD. There still money being made and no sign that they are willing to abandon any of the formats. Not when PCs are coming out with Blu-Ray players, Laptops are just now coming out with blu-ray players and there is a recordable format out there trying to gain a foothold. Now when 80% of households have a DVD player or better but only 50% of households have broadband and at that, not necessarily 20/5 FIOs either.
Consider also that consumers are not necessarily the decision makers here. We have a voice, but we are not totally in control. If we were, HD-DVD would still be around and CDs would be gone or cost $3.
Why is the DVD or Blu-Ray a dying breed when CDs, that are totally, totally eclipsed by MP3s still around? Well, Cds will start dying perhaps when new albums stop coming on CDs but directly for download.
Movie theaters are alive because the studios agree that it's in their best interest to keep them viable. And they do this by not releasing a movie on any other format while it's in the theaters.
So what could change the game and force optical out then? Not the studios, as long as they are making money.
Here are some signs that could indicate they are ready to move on and call for the demise of optical media in my view:
- A movie becomes cheaper and cheaper to rent or buy as a download than on a disc.
- Some key movies are only offered as downloads.
- All-you-can eat movie streaming services start popping up
- Culture change: People really don't want to see discs anymore.
- Better physical medium: movies come out on tiny memory sticks.
I mention those changes because they are likely to get my attention and make me change my behavior. I am not so sure the industry is interested in me changing my behavior just yet though. I believe they still want to sell DVDs and Blu-Rays, (players and movies). They want to make me rent downloads that self-destruct in the next 5 seconds. Maybe rental outfits need to diversify to survive. Maybe other alternatives such as Rdbox are going to appear. But disc rental is not quite dead. And certainly not disc buying.
