The Blu-ray Disc victory in its recent format war with HD-DVD will propel this technology into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008, according to the latest research published by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. According to, "Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership," Sony's PS3 games console will continue to drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which stand-alone Blu-ray players will become the dominant segment. By 2012 more than...

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With the prediction that over 29 million Blu-Ray Players will be sold this year I wonder how many people know that if they don't have an HDMI connection that supports HDCP will be watching HDTV at less than HDTV quality.

I'm not surprised by Sony's success with the PS3. For those who have any interest in video games, I'd recommend going with the PS3 instead of waiting for a stand-alone Blu-ray player. Even if you have no interest in games, you can use the PS3 to download HD free movie trailers and Sony plans to add downloadable complete movies (for a price of course) soon. If you are a gamer you can effortlessly download game demos for free to try before you buy. If you already have an Internet-connected computer you can easily add a wi-fi link available from your Internet provider, handy if your HD set is in another room from your computer. If you use a USB music device such as an iPod, you can plug it into the PS3's USB port and play your tunes through your sound system.

I should add that I have no connection with Sony. This is just a product I'm really impressed with.

Henry

hdtvjim wrote:With the prediction that over 29 million Blu-Ray Players will be sold this year I wonder how many people know that if they don't have an HDMI connection that supports HDCP will be watching HDTV at less than HDTV quality.

I wonder how many people know that this isn't true? I get 1080i Blu-Ray movies on my PS3 over component video. Games, too. The only thing I don't get in HD over component is upconverted standard DVDs. But they were never HD to begin with and my TV is native 480p AND 1080i so it's not a problem.

I don't see them turning on the down-res flag anytime soon. There are too many component video only TVs out there.

This is a topic I'd like to see explained on this forum because it leaves me confused. I thought HDCP would be used to authenticate encrypted media which presumably would block unauthorized Blu-ray discs for copyright protection purposes. I don't see what that has to do with HDMI or why you'd want to block it at the display end.

Also Carnegie Mellon has delivered a paper that says HDCP is fundamentally flawed anyway. What the heck is going on?

Henry

Many of the co-workers that I am working with that were thinking of getting a HD disc system now are afraid to spend the money on a new player,, fear of the system not being around in the future and many of these are older people that do not want a game machine to watch a movie.... And from many reports that I have read else where now that the "War was won by Blu" the sales of player have flattened out....??? So unless the research company really think that people will use their tax relief funds to purchase a movie player I don't see that many more machines being sold.. unless there is a big price drop!

So I don't see 29million machines being sold over the next nine (or less) months... this is over 3.2million per month....

--David

Well, I'm an "older" person and I have three game machines including the PS3 hooked into my 50 " HD set. (Currently playing "Uncharted: Drakes Fortune" for the PS3 ) The games on the PS3 are simply amazing: HD with brilliant detailed color graphics and multichannel surround sound.

In my humble opinion, I think you're dead wrong about the PS3. The problem with the PS3 is its "multi-core" nature, which means that it's a parallel processor capable of doing 7 parallel tasks at once — an extremely powerful machine. That's why it has a big fan on it. The problem is this isn't the way programmers are used to working. Not only is it a different way of thinking, they can't use much inherited software. This means it's going to take some time to come up to speed, but most programmers know massive parallel processing is the future of gaming.

Henry

I thought HDCP would be used to authenticate encrypted media which presumably would block unauthorized Blu-ray discs for copyright protection purposes. I don't see what that has to do with HDMI or why you'd want to block it at the display end.

HDMI is a digital video connection secured by HDCP determined by the source. If HDCP is required, nearly all the time, it will only work when you connect a display to the source and proper handshaking occurs. Displays are a safe destination because they do not record signals.

29 million Blu-Ray homes this year but only 15 million discs to be sold?

http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=187

allargon wrote:29 million Blu-Ray homes this year but only 15 million discs to be sold?

http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=187

Ever hear of Netflix or Blockbuster? Especially with the high cost of BD discs. I know I'm renting most of the discs that I'm watching and only buying a few really good action movies like Live Free or Die Hard.

Sony is scared. They have already lost 50% more money on BR than Toshiba lost on HD DVD, and sales are flat -- at best. Believe it or not, HD DVD disc sales have been improving against BR every month this year-- February was better than January and March better than February. To offset HD DVDs lower-cost, Sony had been subsidizing BR disc costs $3/disc in 2007 and it looks like they will be increasing it this year notwithstanding HD DVD's demise. From the looks of the recent press releases (such as the subject of this discussion) they are even increasing their cash payments for support more than they did when Toshiba was still in the fray... amazing.

Doesn't anyone read articles besides just headlines?
First, the '08 sales predicted are 18.8 million.
Second, that's worldwide sales, not just US.
The 29 million is worldwide total Blu-ray homes at the end of '08.

pmalter0 wrote:To offset HD DVDs lower-cost, Sony had been subsidizing BR disc costs $3/disc in 2007 and it looks like they will be increasing it this year notwithstanding HD DVD's demise. From the looks of the recent press releases (such as the subject of this discussion) they are even increasing their cash payments for support more then they did when Toshiba was still in the fray... amazing.

Increasing subsidies? Catalog BR titles that were $19.99 at Fry's when HD DVD was around are now $22.99. First Look's first HD DVD title was $19.99. When they debuted on Blu, they priced both the HD DVD and the Blu-Ray at $24.99--no subsidies as they are not a major studio. The porn companies complained not only about replication/authoring costs but lack of replication facilities. They charge so much per disc (usually around $50) that the production costs don't quite matter as much.

Back on topic--this is an interesting article showing that the Trojan horse PS3 continues to show up in homes counting to the Blu-Ray installed base but doesn't show people buying discs. The format war is over. The BDA needs to do more than make press announcements to take Blu-Ray to the next level.

DavidEC wrote:Many of the co-workers that I am working with that were thinking of getting a HD disc system now are afraid to spend the money on a new player,, fear of the system not being around in the future and many of these are older people that do not want a game machine to watch a movie....
So I don't see 29million machines being sold over the next nine (or less) months... this is over 3.2million per month....

I agree 100%. I have yet to meet anyone that is thinking of or looking forward to getting a BR player. Most already have more HD options/movies available than they have time to watch! With a flattening economy, spending $400.00 on a player that only has maybe one or two titles in HD (out of an average of 20 DVD releases) per week is no incentive. Also, many people have a bad taste in their mouth from how the eliminationof HD-DVD was handled. (Even if they didn't own aplayer!) The article is simply wishful thinking. The industry shot themselves in the foot as far as mass adoption is concerned.

film11 wrote:The industry shot themselves in the foot as far as mass adoption is concerned.

They did that when they failed to agree on a single format. DVD sales flourished even with competition from cable TV, but it didn't happen overnight.

Prices will come down - they always do. And sales will improve. But anyone who thinks it will happen overnight is dreaming. And anyone who thinks the same thing would not have happened if HD DVD had won is also dreaming. Too much competition from upconverting DVD players and cheaper DVDs.