HD DVD Rallies Consumer Audience in 2007 Driving Nearly One Million Dedicated Player Sales in North America

[pmalter0]

Perhaps some experienced analyst can suggest how we arrive at true costs.

Dale, as someone who has litigated costs perhaps a hundred times, let me offer the following: 1) for determining return on investment, full book costs, or "fully distributed" cost are employed; 2) for pricing purposes, long-run marginal costs are employed. Accordingly, from the consumer viewpoint, I believe long-run marginal costs would be most appropriate.

You also address the history of conflicting standards in HDTV and the problems this created.
There are some enterprises which are called "natural monopolies," which because of the nature of the enterprise and the costs involved in the infrastructure must be government owned or regulated, or require government established standards. The historical references you have discuss are of that type. However, there is absolutely nothing about HD discs that are naturally monopolistic. Now I realize that to some of you this is an issue in contention; however, I submit to you that no knowledgeable judge, lawyer or economist would agree. I will have to admit here that I am speaking ex cathedra, but I have 40 years of litigating and regulating natural monopolies to support my right.

I have this question: Does the public have the collective wisdom and focusing power to choose from a set of specifications and effect a sophisticated new format?

That misrepresents the issue; the public is not selecting a new monopolistic format; it simply is choosing which of two competitive formats offers them the best value-- something the public does most successfully all the time.

Let's call upon leaders in the CE industry and ask them what they know about the consumer's understanding and how prepared they think we are to make this decision on a format?

The leaders of industry will be most happy to give you their self-serving declarations of the monopoly they would like to create.
And those declarations will have about the same value as that of Warner's representative who answered "absolutely no" to the question of whether Sony paid them to support BR.
While we're at it, we might as well ask Sony if there should be competing formats to the PS3; or ask Verizon if there is a need for any other formats for cell phones, etc..

Phil

[Richard]

Phil,

It

[stevekaden]

A slight shift...the game industry has had a number of platforms. All incompatible, and the game companies have had to package (read as: port with at least some labor) their products for the many platforms. The customers have clearly been happy, buying millions of each. The game industry while losing it's pants (approximately!) "buying" the customers through game console losses. The game media industry is massively successful even with all the burdens.

I suppose this model does not work for the common non-technical, non-passionate customer, or impulsive kid but it sure makes the Warner statements, and a lot of the "for the common" or market good seem like falacious arguments.

But, I hate to say it, I too agree this particular market is simplistic enough to be stymied by the confusion of a choice. Or it really was not a market at all. Downloaded music has already systemically taught us simplisticly that plastic is dying.

[akirby]

Slight difference here. Gaming platforms have major differences that are apparent to even the most average consumer - different controllers, HD capability, networked gaming, etc. including the biggest one - games. Do you think anyone would have bought a Nintendo 64 without Mario? No way. Same for PS2 and Gran Turismo. I'm sure Xbox has similar games that are Xbox exclusive.

Shift to HD movies - the average consumer puts in a disc, pushes play and watches a HD movie with great surround sound. There is no difference between HD DVD and Blu-Ray (again, for the average consumer). Cost is also a factor - it's a little easier to buy 2 video game consoles for as little as $300 than it is to buy both DVD formats for 2-3 times that much with no discernable differences.

We can argue the technological differences forever but that won't change the average consumer's perception.

[pmalter0]

your responses suggest numerous times along with a propensity to advocate stances grounded in legal rights that do not by themselves serve the public interest. I say appear since your behavior could easily be your emotional response as to how Toshiba got the shaft

The antitrust laws were specifically enacted to protect the public interest. My anger is in response to a gross violation of those laws and and a concomitant attempt to give the public the "shaft."

I and everyone I have spoken to couldn't care less how many formats there are as long as the format we choose is the least expensive for the quality we desire, and is not subject to being orphaned.

How self serving is that? It speaks volumes about your responses and is quite odd for a lawyer who knows there is no law to prevent anything from being orphaned

Are you really trying to compare the self-serving nature of some one with a $149.95 interest to another with a billion-dollar interest? Moreover, there most certainly are laws to prevent something from being orphaned by contracts or conspiracies in restraint of trade -- which is what we are dealing with here.

the war is really all about money focused on two different carriers and each camps benefactors with each side hoping to do the other in and become the world wide standard at the consumers expense.

That begs the question of whether the consumer is better off with one or two formats.

Do you really mean to tell us that 2-3 years ago you were for another format war and that would be in the public

[akirby]

We seem to have gotten by nicely with just one format for standard DVD. Any company can make a player for both formats, so there's no monopoly on the hardware. To the average consumer, the end result of both formats is identical - viewing a movie in HD on a HDTV.

What can we possibly gain from keeping 2 formats that would offset the hassle of having 2 formats?

You either have to commit to one format and forego content made only for the other format or you have to buy 2 players that deliver essentially the same content at the same resolution. If you're exchanging movies with friends you have to know which format(s) they have.

And there is no way it can be cheaper to mfr movies in both formats or half the movies in one and half in the other.

You sound like a lawsuit looking for a client.

[allchemie]

Phil--

Where were these talks of lawsuits agaiunst Toshiba for having studios locked up to them? How come there were no lawsuits between DVD-A and SACD? This is a losing lawsuit.

Apple has an agreement with every major studio for downloading every movie released withing 30 days of release and immediate downloading for shows for $2,99 to $3.99.

Now in 2 weeks they are releasingan HD Apple TV upgradeto their Apple TV 2.0. People with old 2.0's can have an inexpensive upgrade and people that want a new HD Apple 2.0 can buy it for $229.

Word from Macworld is that a $229 Apple TV will begin shipping in a couple of weeks, with more than 100 HD titles ready to be rented. Cost will be $4.99 for new releases and $3.99 for library titles.

Once you choose a movie, you

[Shane]

Apple has an agreement with every major studio for downloading every movie released withing 30 days of release and immediate downloading for shows for $2,99 to $3.99.

This is the same deal all other download services have. There's nothing special about the Apple relationship. I have an article coming out comparing these video download services very shortly where more information will be available.

High-def films will be available in 720p, and may include 5.1 Dolby Digital surround sound. We say may, because as one observant commenter noted, there

[stevekaden]

To allchemie: I do not have the profit numbers for Vista, and really don't think they matter - they are so freeking big . Vista is hardly a bust. It may have more detractors, but it still is the default on almost all new PC systems Millions and Millions of them. I work for a giant corp, we are moving to upgrade 170,000 systems to Vista - and that is just a drop in the bucket. It will take a while for us, but regardless - we don't get it for free. Nor the Office that will go with it.

As for critizing MS for distributing as beta to do debug...ROFL. You obviously have never produced software. What they are doing is spectacularly correct in getting to a solid product. ALL SW companies do that in one form or another.

I get the feeling you're a solid Mac guy. Cool, but please bring your gaze back into focus.

[allchemie]

My business is solely populated by PC's.Not one Apple. We bought one new PC with Vista and experienced a lot of problems and like many companies I know have stayed with XP PRO.

At home I have both an Apple intel macbook and an Apple Intel iMac and a Dell XPS PC. I copy my companies accounting and critical information to my home pc and also to the Apple, which I connected another hard drive to, as the Intel Apple's can run many OS's. Even if you only have one hard drive you can partition one for OS X and for Microsoft XP or Vista.

I'm not an Apple fanatic, but I do find that the ones I have had crash far less often than all the PC's I have had.

Sorry for the segue, but my main point--and Shane is correct that I was comparing Apple SD movie downloads to HD, my point was when most people thinkof a site to download movies and music it is generally iTunes and iMovies. Apple became enormously profitable at cd's expense with generally lower rez audio downloads. I own two iPods and have never used either, but I am over 50. I like the better quality of cd's and would rather copy them to terabyte hard drives or an Escient.

I know Apple has competition inthe downloadable movie market, but I will bet any amount against someone elses choice that when they start offering 720p HD they will far outdistance all other downloadable services, not to mention over a year or two exceed the sales of HD and Blu Ray. Only the people that want expensive permanent copies of movies are likely to want discs. Heck, it is cheaper to download a 720p in 5.1 and later decide if it is on your permanent list of disc purchases.

I own many hundreds of dvd's and would gladly part with over half of them no questions asked. I bet most others feel the same way. This has undountedly driven Apples success in music. In pop and rock music it is a rare album that doesn't have mostly filler. Between the portability of a download and choosing the cuts of music you know are good has made Apple a huge success. I expect the same with movie downloads, particularly with people that have very good high speed internet. I wish everyone could have FIOS for internet usage, telephone, and even fast online gaming.

Back to the question of HD and Blu Ray. The studios don't live in a vacuum. They sell most of their discs to Walmart, Target, Costco, and many other mass merchandisers--including amazon. They mostly make their decision on the feedback from these stores. These stores not only want, but are demanding one format. Store space is expensive, particularly for two formats that perform the same. As expensive as Blu Ray machines have been with the exception of PS3, the feedback has been Blu Ray is outselling HD and they would prefer (if not demand and step out on their own--a la Target) that they only will use space for one format. They don't want confusion from their customers and they owe it to their shareholders to make the most money per square foot that they can. Two formats of the same thing brings down their profit per square foot of selling space.

I don't care who wins--HD or Blu ray in this disc showdown. There will be a winner, which is not to say that both won't exist. It may well be like the people who still love vinyl LP's and can buy them versus the cd's. The loser may well make a couple of different machines a year to keep up and the studios will likely sell the rights to each movie to a company or companies that want to make HD discs. This has happened with vinyl and will likely happen in this war--whoever wins.

Greg