HD DVD Rallies Consumer Audience in 2007 Driving Nearly One Million Dedicated Player Sales in North America

[miller]

Well, thank you all for trying. I've asked enough times. I give up.

- Miller

[stevekaden]

The cathartic experience has none of the usual logic or conclusion. Then again neither does getting run over by a truck. I think we all, especially those who believed HD DVD might be better, feel the same catharsis. And all of us are wondering where that truck was going in such a hurry - given the clear possibility of a plasticless future.

IMHO this thread is done, long live the technologies we love to live with. (ed. maybe not.)

[film11]

If your arguments were valid then why did we not see these problems with standard DVD? You can buy a DVD player now for $19 and DVDs are also dirt cheap. Why would Blu-Ray be any different?

Because HD discs may not achieve the same level of penetration that standard DVD has. It may end up becoming a niche format a la laserdisc. So prices could remain fairly high. Although I currently own neither format, I have to say that what Warners is doing (especially now announcing that they are even going to delay catalog titles on HD-DVD to ensure that as few people as possible purchase it) has turned me off to the HDM format. I see more movies in HD than I'll ever see on BR. And some titles with video quality that is stronger than what BR has displayed for those same movies.

And of course, there are other outlets becoming available as well. Whether they are pracitical or good enough depends on the individual. But I just don't think a mass audience is going to run out and get BR. HD-DVD would have allowed many who are "on the fence" to take the plunge at reasonable price points. And that would certainly have spurred the growth of HDM on both formats. I think that Warners has short-sightedly torpedoed that. Just my opinion...the landscape may be totally different in a couple years.

[pmalter0]

We can argue the technological differences forever but that won't change the average consumer's perception.


What can we possibly gain from keeping 2 formats that would offset the hassle of having 2 formats?

You either have to commit to one format and forego content made only for the other format or you have to buy 2 players that deliver essentially the same content at the same resolution. If you're exchanging movies with friends you have to know which format(s) they have.

And there is no way it can be cheaper to mfr movies in both formats or half the movies in one and half in the other.

Go ask those game publishers and retailers if they would prefer one media format over 4 (PS3, Wii, Xbox, PC) and I guarantee you they'll say yes. It definitely costs more but apparently the profits of selling on multiple platforms outweighs the cost. But it's apples and oranges because each platform has something unique whether it's a particular game (Gran Turismo on PS, Mario on Nintendo, etc.) or controller or other feature.
What difference does the average consumer see when comparing HD DVD and Blu-Ray? None. Both deliver a movie in HD with surround sound.

Apples and oranges.

There is more from Greg, allchemie, explaining what the distribution chain wants.

T

Akirby doesn't know squat about what the average consumer wants. When HD DVD broke the $200 price barrier their sales skyrocketed, totally blowing out standalone blueray players. He asks what we can possibly gain from keeping two formats -- and the simple answer is lower prices. Showing more of his infinite wisdom, he states that there is no way it can be cheaper to manufacture.... half the movies in one format and half in the other. Try starting off with one format having half the manufacturing costs of the other. Most importantly however, is the fact that with two formats you have competition. There is no way to overstate the importance of competition when it comes to prices. If there were only one cell phone company in every area, there is no question that there would be less duplication of facilities and lower overall costs -- to the cell phone company. But does anyone question that the consumers would pay higher prices with less competition? (and yes there are entirely different and incompatible formats in the cell phone business).

You guys do have one thing correct however, and that is that the distribution chain would prefer one format. The distribution chain almost ways wants less competition. Less competition usually means higher profits and prices. And that, my friends, is why we have contracts and conspiracies designed to reduce competition; in response to which, we have the antitrust laws.

I didn't respond to allchemieGreg's answers because I thought since they were so ludicrous that nobody would would accord them any credibility. I accurately criticized Dale's reliance on the self-serving allegations of studio executives, and along comes Greg with all the answers because he has uncles at the studios, who tell him things like "when huge rental outfits like Netflix tell them that only 0.3% of the discs they rent out are high-Def it gives the studios heartburn." I think Gregg's uncle is the only one who doesn't know that Netflix puts almost all of its high Def customers on long wait lists because it can not get enough HD to satisfy demand.

I will also agree, however that unless an antitrust action is filed, the format war is over -- and we (and I do mean WE) have lost. So say goodbye to under $200 HD disc players and BOGO disc deals.
Phil

[film11]

There is no way to overstate the importance of competition when it comes to prices. If there were only one cell phone company in every area, there is no question that there would be less duplication of facilities and lower overall costs -- to the cell phone company. But does anyone question that the consumers would pay higher prices with less competition?

A good example is cable TV. Cable subscribers do not have a choice as to which cable system they can use. Most areas have only one. Subsequently, cable rates go throught the roof. Comcast, for example, raises their prices every single year! (With 2008 providing their biggest rate increase ever!) And often, the consumer gets nothing for the extra cost they pay. The only other option a consumer has is satellite (not always practical for everyone). And when someone cancels cable to switch to DISH or Direct TV, THEN the cable company may offer a lower rate to keep the subscriber. But otherwise, cable companies can have their rates run rampant.

[Richard]

I can choose between two cable providers and it has not reflected a drop in pricing at all! If you don't like cable go satellite and those prices aren't dropping either.

Akirby doesn't know squat about what the average consumer wants.

Yet you keep ignoring the fact that the average consumer and industry asked, requested, begged, and petitioned for one format prior.

[akirby]

I think I'm just as qualified to know what the average consumer wants as anyone else.

Why does everyone think that having one format means no competition? Every major electronics mfr will be making a blu-ray player - guaranteed.

How is this any different that standard DVDs? We didn't seem to need two formats there and dvd and player prices are lower than ever, even before HD DVD and Blu-Ray caught on.

The competition will be for content, availability, features and pricing - just like standard DVDs today. Please stop the "No Competition" crap because it's simply not true.

[pmalter0]

I think I'm just as qualified to know what the average consumer wants as anyone else.

Absolutely -- squat.

Why does everyone think that having one format means no competition? Every major electronics mfr will be making a blu-ray player - guaranteed...
The competition will be for content, availability, features and pricing - just like standard DVDs today. Please stop the "No Competition" crap because it's simply not true.

You keep on overlooking the fact that they are two different types of competition here -- hardware and software. Without format competition there will be no software competition; there will be one manufacturer for each title --period. Think of cell phones -- even if there were only one cell phone "provider" there would still be many different brands of cell phones to choose from. As I've said before, all those disc deals we see now will be gone after there is no longer any disc competition.

Phil

[pmalter0]

I can choose between two cable providers and it has not reflected a drop in pricing at all! If you don't like cable go satellite and those prices aren't dropping either.

Competition between two cable companies is rare, and usually only in small overlap areas -- not sufficient to present any real competition. However, Fios does present true competition; and oh what a difference! In December, I received a notice from Comcast that my TV/broadband rates were going up $20 per month; when I complained I was simply told that they raise their rates every year and that's what it is. They offered me their so-called triple play, for only five dollars a month more. I called Verizon, and they offered me their comparable triple play for $15 per month less than Comcast. When I called Comcast to cancel, they countered by offering to cut $25 per month off their triple play price (thus giving me free telephone service for my current pre-increase price). When I called Verizon back to cancel my order, they offer to reduce their price to even below Comcast. And that, my friend Richard, is what true competition looks like.

Yet you keep ignoring the fact that the average consumer and industry asked, requested, begged, and petitioned for one format prior.

Funny, you never asked me. Which, while we are on the point brings up the real issue of what the consumer wants. I told you earlier what I and those I have spoken to want. I think if the issue were properly presented to consumers generally they would agree with me. However, the consumer has been presented with the issue as: do you want a repeat of the beta/VHS wars? Even I would answer that "no." I have noted before that there simply is no comparison between those wars and the current issue. A couple of salient differences: 1) beta/VHS started out primarily as a recording medium, 2) when beta/VHS became a movie purchase/rental medium it was predominantly through thousands of small mom-and-pop "clubs" on almost every street corner. Netflix was the first to recognize how phenomenally different the new disc media was from the old tapes; and now does more business than 10,000 of the old clubs ever did. If no one other than Amazon and Netflix stocked HD DVD discs, we would have more functional format competition than there ever was with the old tapes.

I will admit that you guys have succeeded in scaring enough consumers that you have not only impeded HD disc penetration but also have given psychic support to those who would like to see a single monopolized HD disc format. Unfortunately, since you have chosen the more expensive of the two formats, you have doomed HD disc media in its future real battle with Internet HD downloads -- congratulations.

Phil

[Richard]

You keep overlooking the fact that the average consumer and industry asked, requested, begged, and petitioned for one format prior. How can you be serving the consumer if you are going to ignore what they wanted? If anything you seem hell bent on proving how wrong they were when the outcome tells all.

Ya, you can go on and on about free markets versus monopoly, how HD DVD player prices were so low and disc prices low but the government didn't pass a law requiring all studios to provide content on both formats for say 5 years for a truly FAIR format war of carrier, hardware and interface which never would have happened. Both camps were involved in anti trust foul play ( anybody surprised? ) so as you point out Toshiba is not going to do anything.

All you and this format war has proven is the collective wisdom of the past and the collective wisdom prior to the war; one format.

The only collective wisdom you represent now is the is of the present and the self serving wishes of those being abandoned.

Is there a blu-ray owner crying over any of the points you have made? Not one post yet...