Format Wars May Be Over, but Blu-ray Still Faces Challenges, According to ABI Research

[DavidEC]

While I was [and still am] a HD-DVD supporter...
Due to the loss of the battle...
Have been looking at a 'Blu' machine(s)
[Mainly one of the duo machines due to owning over 100 HD=DVD's]...
But it seems that current gas prices keep me from purchasing even a basic 'Blu' machine at this time!!
So if many are feeling the pinch like myself the purchase of new electronics will be on a as need to bases, only if something breaks down, no mater how much better the replacement will be.
Two months later I have not seen the expected price drop of the 'Blu' machines <many machines and software even went up in price?!> and only "NEW" ''low price'' machine from 'Phillips' is being blasted in the reviews due to lack of spec's and codec support.

[allargon]

That Philips machine is super hideous. It's ugly and ill-spec'd. It's cheap ($340 at Sam's Club) for a profile 1.1 Blu player. That's it.

I would take a look at the LG BH200. It still has a few disc playback issues here and there. (Name a standalone that doesn't!) The only major flaw that people complain about is that it stretches 4:3 SD DVD's when upconverting. (Disturbingly a lot of upconverters do that as well.)

[Richard]

Two months later I have not seen the expected price drop of the 'Blu' machines

Who expected or said that? We would have been lucky if pricing would have remained the same! Remember most of these products were subsidized by the war - we never paid the real price at the time!

With volume we might see similar or slightly lower pricing by next Christmas season. It may take another season beyond that to see some really low high volume prices.

[DavidEC]

Two months later I have not seen the expected price drop of the 'Blu' machines

Who expected or said that? ......

Many 'CNet' reports and Famous Bill over at "Digital Bits"

What is funny is shortly after the 'Toshiba' announcement 'CNet' did a quick turn and started telling readers not to purchase any 'HD' format due to lack of firmware after supporting/pushing 'Blu' for months.

[miller]

Remember most of these products were subsidized by the war - we never paid the real price at the time!

Interesting. I've heard conjecture that this might be the case, but no publication was ever willing to state as much, or to provide pricing break-down. Could you please elaborate Richard? Specifically, I'd like to know build cost vs. sale cost, as well as who was making up the difference (ie. who subsidized selling at a loss).

Then again, maybe I'm just reading your statement wrong, and you're just conjecturing as well. But since you're writing it as fact, I assume you have the juicy details to back it up.

Thanks,

- Miller

[akirby]

It's called common sense. You had Toshiba HD DVD players suddenly go from several hundred dollars to $100-$200, almost overnight. PLUS 5 free HD DVDs. There is no technological explanation for prices to drop that quickly. And Sony has always sold playstation consoles at a slight loss because they more than make up for it on game sales and royalties.

The fact that there were few (if any) mfrs other than Toshiba offering those cheap HD DVD players should be enough evidence. Do you honestly think Samsung and LG would be left out of the sub $200 HD DVD player market?

Anything sold by Toshiba and Sony was subsidized (by them). Why? To try and become the defacto standard through sales volume. It didn't work for either one.

Anyone who thinks HD DVD players would have continued to be < $200 is naive.

[miller]

It's called common sense.

Common sense or not, when a representative of a publication like HDTV Magazine makes a statement like that, I expect they better be prepared to back it up. I've been reading this pub for a long time, any they never make statements like that without solid foundation.

I personally am interested because I have always thought the same but never able to find anyone willing to prove it.

That's why I want to know if Richard is just going along with the conjecture, assumptions and "common sense" of everyone else, or if he has facts to back up his statement.

- Miller

[akirby]

The only people that have those 'facts' are Toshiba and Sony - and that's proprietary information that they're never going to release.

Edited

[Richard]

I try to avoid opinion as much as possible...

I don't know of anybody in the industry who disagrees. As long as the reader understands that NOTHING is free then common sense plays a role in understanding why this would be so on the surface. The only question that rarely gets answered is how much subsidizing took place?

The only people that have those 'facts' are Toshiba and Sony - and that's proprietary information that they're never going to release.

That is a fact! We can only estimate what costs may be and doing so is a lengthy endeavor.

HDTV Technology Review - Consumer Edition, along with free prior reports
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/reports/hdt ... review.php

From the Industry edition:

According to iSuppli Corp, after a

[miller]

As Yoda might say: Common concensus does not a fact make

Just because everyone believes something to be true, doesn't make it so.

But thank you for providing those figures, that DOES back up your statement. Do you know if they figured in for economies of scale and overlapping licencing agreements for patents they may already be paying royalties on, or were those individual component prices?

Thanks,

- Miller